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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In contrast to Suffolk (which has Buttigieg +1), which has been a pretty bad poll for Sanders this year, UNH has ha… https://t.co/xhxJ40PIBG — PolitiTweet.org
Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur
New Hampshire poll of 2020 Democrats: CNN/UNH Sanders 28% (+3 since January) Buttigieg 21% (+6) Biden 11% (-5) War… https://t.co/mOovKfwOfv
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @micahcohen: The Nevada Democratic Party has confirmed to @FiveThirtyEight that it will not use an app in its caucuses. https://t.co/Uy… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@OsitaNwanevu Yeah, and there's something about how the unknown commodity is always more attractive. Like maybe if… https://t.co/NUtPzI3fO7 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@OsitaNwanevu I don't totally get why Booker, Klobuchar and Harris didn't get more support from party elites in the first place. Especially Booker. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@OsitaNwanevu I'm just saying Bloomberg hits a sweet spot in terms of (i) being highly visible in NYC/DC circles party elites travel in (ii) having neoliberal policy views that party elites love (iii) being able to make *just* enough of an argument to make them think they're being rational — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@OsitaNwanevu Remember that party elites are not very smart about politics though. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Also, by the time Bloomberg totally cleared out the moderate lane, it might be fairly late in the process, giving B… https://t.co/ETbG5zgTjZ — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Agree with this. Bloomberg fans seem excited by the possibility that the race could eventually come down to Bloombe… https://t.co/dPnz14xEJi — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
If this race ever were to come down to Sanders vs. Bloomberg, count me skeptical Biden/Buttigieg/Klobuchar voters w… https://t.co/c55atRxYSn
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Certainly not out of the question that you could have Bernie-Buttigieg finish 1-2 in some order in New Hampshire, with Klobuchar in 3rd — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @Tonyhkchow: For the night owls and west coasters: Late night #DemDebate reaction pod with @FiveThirtyEight in NH! https://t.co/166lOY… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I would note that the one pollster to show Sanders behind, Suffolk, was one of Sanders's worst polls in Iowa. So Sa… https://t.co/pVW9EGidaO — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Buttigieg up to a 28% chance to win New Hampshire; Bernie hanging in there at 65%. https://t.co/gul5ZwKQfc — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I have no idea who won/is winning this debate — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Some thoughts on what Joe Biden needs to accomplish tonight and the state of his campaign overall. https://t.co/stnEv4MzUI — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's live, it's a blog. It's a liveblog. It's the 538 debate liveblog, live from Manchester, N.H., where we're blog… https://t.co/Z5EUjnyrSk — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
FWIW, our model is programed to be just a teensy-tiny bit conservative because there's no post *debate* polling yet… https://t.co/mWBJBQD8DZ — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
NH polling average: Bernie 25.9 Buttigieg 18.9 Biden 13.5 Warren 12.7 Klobuchar 7.9 https://t.co/nRWOEjafiW — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
That matters, because we have the race ending with no one having a delegate majority ~25% of the time. We don't try to forecast who would win the nomination in those cases. https://t.co/fpGdDgNKCU — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
To repeat for like the 45th time (but tbh I'll probably repeat it 100 more times)…For each candidate, our model forecasts a range of possibilities for *delegates*, including the chance of a majority or plurality of pledged delegates. We are not forecasting the nomination per se. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Not a super long riff, but a few thoughts on Bloomberg, whose data is now easier to find in our forecast. https://t.co/xsdR8NMHXC https://t.co/PfKUzEQ2Lz — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Meanwhile, not particularly surprising, but Biden, Sanders and Warren have all seen their net favorables get slightly worse since our January poll, while Buttigieg's favorables have improved. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
We didn't ask the horse race question outright, but not such a terrible poll for Biden. The number of voters consid… https://t.co/OyV4EFqvW4 — PolitiTweet.org
Sarah E. Frostenson @sfrostenson
Despite a fourth-place finish in IA, 46% are considering Biden in our pre-debate Ipsos poll. Still gets highest mar… https://t.co/UiqahKlgG3
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Notice that our forecast actually has Bloomberg getting a decent number of delegates. It's verrrrry skeptical of his ability to get a pledged delegate *majority* because he's starting from behind. But he could certainly accumulate delegates, and be a factor later on. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
We've always been forecasting Bloomberg FWIW, but he'd been pretty hard to find. He'll now appear along with Sander… https://t.co/Jid3RoinYn — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
There's a new face in our forecast in a *beautiful* gold color. https://t.co/JDz2dZ8bqR https://t.co/duFZDfQKEk — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
One thing to think about too: If Sanders wins NH, that might deflate Buttigieg a bit, giving Biden a chance to be the main rival to Bernie after all. If Buttigieg wins NH, Bernie could be in a fair bit of trouble; someone like Warren might get another look. — PolitiTweet.org
Seth Masket @smotus
Wow y’all went from “The Iowa screwup means no winnowing” to “OMG it’s down to Bernie and Pete” awfully fast. Let’s… https://t.co/ujql9isnaM
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
You could also have proportional delegate allocation but the nomination decided by plurality rather than majority and you'd never have to worry about a contested convention. — PolitiTweet.org
Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias
It’s weird that Democrats have proportional delegate allocation but also everyone thinks a brokered convention would be a disaster.
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
That is to say, Sanders was regarded as the almost-certain winner instead of what he should have been, which was th… https://t.co/8mEvrvqb1L — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Yep, it does account for performance relative to expectations. But it defines expectations in a particular way (national polls, adjusted for regional factors) I think *subjective* expectations were a bit miscalibrated in Iowa. — PolitiTweet.org
Liam Donovan @LPDonovan
@NateSilver538 Does the model account for beating the spread, so to speak? Seems like this is the impression of vic… https://t.co/ACMFsX6OdB
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
NBA trade deadline had only modest effects on our forecast. RAPTOR isn't a huge Marcus Morris fan & doesn't like the guys the 76ers added at all. Main thing right now is the Rockets climbing back into contention with their winning streak + Covington. https://t.co/SfFhO0cq2P https://t.co/4ZkxcQ6Ur6 — PolitiTweet.org
