Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 26, 2020

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Fri Feb 07 13:47:59 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

NBA trade deadline had only modest effects on our forecast. RAPTOR isn't a huge Marcus Morris fan & doesn't like the guys the 76ers added at all. Main thing right now is the Rockets climbing back into contention with their winning streak + Covington. https://t.co/SfFhO0cq2P https://t.co/4ZkxcQ6Ur6 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Relatedly, although he made a lot of gains there before Iowa, Sanders's polling is pretty flat in NH *since* Iowa. More consistent with what you'd expect from what is perceived as a 2nd-place finish in Iowa rather than a tie or win. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yep, it does account for performance relative to expectations. But it defines expectations in a particular way (national polls, adjusted for regional factors) I think *subjective* expectations were a bit miscalibrated in Iowa. — PolitiTweet.org

@NateSilver538 Does the model account for beating the spread, so to speak? Seems like this is the impression of vic… https://t.co/ACMFsX6OdB

Posted Feb. 7, 2020 Hibernated