Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 26, 2020

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Fri Feb 07 13:57:31 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That is to say, Sanders was regarded as the almost-certain winner instead of what he should have been, which was th… https://t.co/8mEvrvqb1L — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yep, it does account for performance relative to expectations. But it defines expectations in a particular way (national polls, adjusted for regional factors) I think *subjective* expectations were a bit miscalibrated in Iowa. — PolitiTweet.org

@NateSilver538 Does the model account for beating the spread, so to speak? Seems like this is the impression of vic… https://t.co/ACMFsX6OdB

Posted Feb. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You could also have proportional delegate allocation but the nomination decided by plurality rather than majority and you'd never have to worry about a contested convention. — PolitiTweet.org

It’s weird that Democrats have proportional delegate allocation but also everyone thinks a brokered convention would be a disaster.

Posted Feb. 7, 2020 Hibernated