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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
This is a sham. They should make them play Texas hold 'em instead. https://t.co/uULTn8dBn8 — PolitiTweet.org
Tommy Vietor @TVietor08
If there’s a tie to 4 decimal places that impacts how delegates are awarded: Rules dictate that candidates draw pla… https://t.co/yEin3u670B
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Our forecast is pricing in a pretty big Sanders win in NV, so if that's what happens, it won't shift the odds *that… https://t.co/wBdFyMuDqs — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
We will hold the model open until 10a Eastern or so for last-minute polls but looks like we're gonna end up with Be… https://t.co/xxqqbqzW0Z — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Sanders delivered a version of this line at his Las Vegas rally tonight, which the crowd loved, and then had a coup… https://t.co/stGuEysh5c — PolitiTweet.org
Bernie Sanders @BernieSanders
I've got news for the Republican establishment. I've got news for the Democratic establishment. They can't stop us.
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Sanders is inherently kind of an underdog candidate but has entered Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada as a polling fav… https://t.co/sPBITLfyeI — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Sanders, unsurprisingly, also working Bloomberg into his remarks in Nevada. "Bloomberg has every right in the world… https://t.co/VcuHjVwYM2 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Sanders, in a rally 10 minutes down the road from Warren's, doesn't *quite* offer an unconditional prediction of vi… https://t.co/MtGfU6ejux — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In a relatively direct hit on Sanders, Warren says "people like Bernie" have "given a veto to the gun industry" and… https://t.co/z7Iq4HJoXV — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@TheStalwart They've really gotta kill off Iowa and have Nevada go first. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
A little 🔥 from me on Bloomberg. https://t.co/VsxVb6OPST — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I'm not totally sure what it means and it's probably just noise/means nothing, but Sanders's state polls aren't as strong as his national polls. A lot of low-to-mid-20s, whereas the national polls are in the mid-to-high-20s. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Before this poll, our averages had SC at Biden 24.5, Sanders 20.5, Steyer 15.7, others single digits, so this is right in line with expectations. https://t.co/2ec9HD4QjK — PolitiTweet.org
Zach Montellaro @ZachMontellaro
New Winthrop University South Carolina poll has a tightening race! Biden 24% Sanders 19% Steyer 15% Buttigieg 7% W… https://t.co/jFJPX6Xfs4
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
THIS IS BIDEN ERASURE (TBH I'm not sure if I mean this ironically or seriously. But Biden has always done pretty well vs. Sanders in head-to-head polls, including in the recent Yahoo one.) — PolitiTweet.org
Ryan Grim @ryangrim
The funny thing is that Pete has no path to beat Sanders, either. We've seen the head-to-head. The only candidate c… https://t.co/wvnNnUmiEv
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @ameliatd: Nevada is the first big test of Sanders's appeal among Latinos. He has an edge in the polls *and* in outreach. But there's al… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@joshtpm And his *recent*, rather rapid surge (from ~9% to ~16%) looks very much like an *earned* media surge. No doubt he has a decently high floor, but reverting back even partway to his pre-Iowa numbers would be a real problem for him on Super Tuesday. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@joshtpm Sure, although one of the main questions is how durable his support was based on paid messaging. A lot of people who say they support him in polls also say they are not firmly decided. They may also not be particularly likely to turn out to vote. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
This is good advice and the media shouldn't proclaim Bloomberg's campaign dead (or anything close) without seeing the evidence. But also it wasn't clear how alive Bloomberg's campaign was in the first place and the media may have jumped the gun in proclaiming him a frontrunner. — PolitiTweet.org
Esoteric Jeff @EsotericCD
I would wait to pronounce Bloomberg's campaign dead (as so many media outlets are doing online right now). Like, ma… https://t.co/8h9azAgCLW
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Sanders didn't get hit too hard, but Warren having a good night isn't a great development for him. — PolitiTweet.org
Nick Riccardi @NickRiccardi
One takeaway that has become pretty constant — the moderates again spent most of the time fighting with each other,… https://t.co/UVDBBwXlqK
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@MattGrossmann They may also be less likely to vote, though. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Prediction markets are sometimes dumb but don't remember someone crashing this much over the course of a debate (well, 45 minutes of a debate). https://t.co/ZI23B7WN1W https://t.co/pln3L3QCNO — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Don't get TOO excited but I've got an analysis of Bloomberg's current position in the campaign up on the liveblog. https://t.co/nuXI6nDsq1 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
🎲538🎲 🎲NEVADA🎲 🎲DEBATE🎲 🎲LIVEBLOG🎲 https://t.co/gyp3qxnpRX — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Our model has grown much, much less skeptical of Bloomberg, but mostly because he's in *striking distance* of having a really big Super Tuesday. Get up to the mid-to-high-20s and he could do some real good for himself. High teens or even low 20s, not exactly. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Other thing to keep in mind re: Bloomberg is that if he just gets what he's getting in the polls *right now* that's…not actually great for him. It tends to lead either to a Sanders nomination, a contested convention, or leaves room someone else (JB/PB/EW/AK) having a big night. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @D3BaseballPod: this is Salisbury OF Justin Meekins, one of the best hitters in D-III baseball the progression of his roster photos fro… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@asymmetricinfo Yeah it's super high variance. But that's a reason for other candidates to stay in. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@asymmetricinfo He certainly can win. I'm not expecting him to drop out either, nor saying he should! I just think his claims to being the strongest non-Bernie candidate aren't terribly persuasive to candidates who have demonstrated more staying power and survived a field that went from 27 to 5. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Bloomberg has certainly beaten my expectations so far and it's possible that he'll be at 25% nationally by Super Tuesday. But he could also decline as a result of a bad debate or say Biden gaining momentum by winning SC. Media-driven poll surges and declines are not uncommon. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Ehh, he seems to have gotten a little stuck in the polls at ~16% and this is happening at a time when the opposition research is just starting to escalate and the tone of media coverage has shifted from surprise to skepticism. — PolitiTweet.org
Megan McArdle @asymmetricinfo
@NateSilver538 Sure, but the latter is because, unlike most candidates, he doesn't need the first four states to fi… https://t.co/a6O7anj83f
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Well, I'd say it's more than that. The point of a long primary campaign is that you have to survive lots of tests. Debates, opposition research/rough news cycles, polling slumps—and then perform respectably well in the first 4 states. Bloomberg hasn't done almost any of that yet. — PolitiTweet.org
Megan McArdle @asymmetricinfo
THe argument for Bloomberg leaving the race is the argument for any other moderate candidate to leave the race. And… https://t.co/7RktvcHBme
