Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Meanwhile in SOUTH CAROLINA, which looked like a near-tie after NH, we've suddenly got polls showing Biden up 7, 15… https://t.co/kGk2htBrXv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Finally, does BUTTIGIEG have pockets of strength on Super Tuesday where he's comfortably over 15% and will get dele… https://t.co/vUr993wWkY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

WARREN *seems* to have gotten a bounce from *last* week's debate, but there wasn't really enough polling to know fo… https://t.co/YfPD2xKinl — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

With SANDERS, the long-term trajectory is obviously positive. But you can squint and make several different cases (… https://t.co/I3VMyUMmbT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

BIDEN no longer seems to be falling. But is he rising? And if so, is it a broad-based rise, or concentrated among s… https://t.co/7TxhqnfXCP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

With events (primaries, debates, etc.) piling on top of one another in rapid succession it's not super easy to char… https://t.co/UVeiP4pr1N — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@awprokop I certainly think campaigns look at how they're doing but I just don't think they're doing it in a terrib… https://t.co/ERXbtHLxMj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@awprokop I think you are probably overrating how rational campaigns are with their drop-out decisions. A lot of it… https://t.co/RsgLdmxBtK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @baseballot: Biden's chance of winning the #SCprimary has really soared in the last few days. https://t.co/xPqsqMYBux https://t.co/RJjMk… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Something which *ought* to be obvious to people but maybe isn't? 3 outcomes are overwhelmingly more likely than any… https://t.co/IudtXfL69T — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

WHY NOT OPRAH? https://t.co/9LhRUNfsBx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And a Bernie win in South Carolina would leave Bernie in a very very strong position, obviously. But Sanders's pol… https://t.co/608t7KhNPL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Per our model, a *big* Biden win wouldn't *quite* put him and Bernie at parity, but you can start to see a scenario… https://t.co/QNaPHvimZl — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

WHAT WOULD THE RACE LOOK LIKE AFTER A BIDEN WIN IN SOUTH CAROLINA? I've got a fairly detailed analysis here: https://t.co/uj0vc9X8A7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@PatrickRuffini Agree that a debate is the sort of time when these markets might be useful. Still, their pricing… https://t.co/gNWrYrpkaD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@skepticalsports @PatrickRuffini That's right. And the structures are bad and the transaction costs are significant… https://t.co/oMC47IzdXl — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@PatrickRuffini Nope, they're usually dumb. The argument for prediction markets would be stronger if the errors the… https://t.co/SBD6QZZnad — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As an edge case, suppose Candidate A has 1740 delegates and B has 1739, both short of the majority threshold (1990). However, A faded and B won the last 14 nomination contests, won the popular vote & currently leads A by 30 points in head-to-head polls. Who should be nominated? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I may write something more longform about this once everything slows down. But it seems to me that an important question if no Democrat has a delegate *majority* is whether there are credible, competing claims to reflecting the will of the electorate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

IDK in general the debates seem to have helped the more prepared and substantive candidates, and have provided Dems with a hedge against candidates who dominated paid media or "earned" media. There's a good argument that Democrats should have had twice as many of them. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @SethS_D: I am listening to interview on people using Google Trends to predict outbreaks of coronavirus. I am skeptical it will be much… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @jonathanchait I agree with Yglesias on 2 of these 4 points but I'm never going to tell you guys which ones LOL. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

OK we've finally got a Colorado poll from @DataProgress and you will be SHOCKED to learn that it's a good state for… https://t.co/po40dOlk8Y — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Ipsos Of course, if the debate proves to be a nothingburger, that’s better for some candidates than others. It may… https://t.co/kJ4jB34few — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Ipsos In terms of net favorability ratings, Biden’s improved the most, while Warren’s worsened the most. Again, th… https://t.co/Bx5pxzuwUk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Ipsos Likewise, there were hardly any changes in which candidates voters were considering. Sanders’s numbers impro… https://t.co/tMaXHX9hbi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Ipsos Overall grades were low across the board by the standards of past debates. Sanders, Buttigieg, Biden, Klobuc… https://t.co/h69HUn38YT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

BREAKING: Dem voters were not happy with the debate last night per our poll with @Ipsos. Not clear there was a winn… https://t.co/xBVTZrar0j — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It would be fairly hard to engineer a polling scenario in which Bloomberg was more helpful to Bernie, in other words. Of course, polls could change before Super Tuesday. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So generally speaking, Bloomberg is at risk of <15% in Bernie's strongest states, which is helpful to Bern since Bloom drains votes from other moderates but may get few delegates of his own. In Biden's strongest states (i.e. in the South) though, Bloomberg is usually *over* 15%. — PolitiTweet.org