Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 28, 2020

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Thu Feb 27 04:59:13 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@PatrickRuffini Nope, they're usually dumb. The argument for prediction markets would be stronger if the errors the… https://t.co/SBD6QZZnad — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As an edge case, suppose Candidate A has 1740 delegates and B has 1739, both short of the majority threshold (1990). However, A faded and B won the last 14 nomination contests, won the popular vote & currently leads A by 30 points in head-to-head polls. Who should be nominated? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@skepticalsports @PatrickRuffini That's right. And the structures are bad and the transaction costs are significant… https://t.co/oMC47IzdXl — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 27, 2020 Hibernated