Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@StephenLevin33 Will do -- thank you! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@StephenLevin33 Do you know if the MTA has published detailed ridership statistics by day? I found this, which list… https://t.co/M5osNtFGQO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidshor That is very cool but this detail renders it pretty difficult to use for the United States: "The estimat… https://t.co/kqvILgYYGK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidshor I have not. Have been goofing around with my own models, though. The key is really what R0 has been for… https://t.co/YpjYoo9vVu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Depending on what that growth curve looks like, we could either be heading for Lombardy++, or something more salvageable. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The data I'd really, really like to see is the number of COVID-19-related hospitalizations by day in NYC.... how fa… https://t.co/qLigy4nuRg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @DataProgress: 🚨NEW POLL🚨 50% of North Carolina likely voters say yes, Burr must resign 26% say no 23% Undecided 452 N / +-4.7 MOE / 3/… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes I am very very worried about NYC hospitals and I agree with his policy prescription but the math here… https://t.co/XJNt4SEWot — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Like for the senior senator from Oklahoma: this does not seem like a very coronavirus-y basket of stocks to sell (s… https://t.co/qQGL2HLYO5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The accusations that are burbling up (based on public financial disclosures) against GOP senators other than Burr a… https://t.co/xr4uj3aY5r — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @davidgura: REMINDER: Sen. Kelly Loeffler is married to Jeffrey Sprecher, the chairman of the New York Stock Exchange, and the chairman… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @kjhealy: That's why it's a scandal, you dipshit. https://t.co/XJItYjqfmw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Tucker Carlson is calling for Burr to resign. It's always a little hard to tell how these things will play out but… https://t.co/aWrqDO8wlW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @PoliticsWolf: @NateSilver538 The filing deadline already passed — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Ahh so Democrats are left with their existing candidates in Georgia. https://t.co/kXW3jDwf91 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's also not clear that what Barr and Loeffler did is legal. https://t.co/pe08O74suJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Another question is whether Burr will face pressure to resign. Under North Carolina law, Gov. Cooper (D) would have… https://t.co/i9VDh7yAsf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Unlike Burr she's running for re-election this year. It's a special election where the top 2 finishers advance to a… https://t.co/hOi9ieGzbU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

LOLeffler https://t.co/mn2rJbGBox — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Like every single person here thinks coronavirus will change the world in ways that either (i) they personally like… https://t.co/Ky0YFyUFFN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And considering there's a lag between transmission and when symptoms appear, it's likely there was a lot of transmi… https://t.co/rS3vnnL2gq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Data on NYC hospital admissions for respiratory and influenza-like symptoms suggest the big spikes came between Sun… https://t.co/0qleJpv34h — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Well there are 3 hypotheses 1) Suggests the rate among the general population is much higher than assumed 2) They'… https://t.co/HyPE6aK8Ir — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Why is it a long game? Because one fairly likely outcome, per epidemiologists, is that we'll have to deal with multiple waves of COVID-19. Citing uncontextualized worst-case scenarios that don't come to fruition will make it harder for people to buy in when 2nd/3rd/etc waves hit. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

While I get why people like to cite those numbers to spark action⁠—our testing/surveillance is way behind in the US, the numbers COULD get VERY bad without social distancing⁠—this is also a long game and I worry about the effects of citing numbers like that without context. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Folks you've gotta be careful when you see numbers like "50% of the population will be infected with coronavirus within 6 weeks". Those assume that the virus essentially continues unchecked other than thru herd immunity. Continued social distancing should bend the curve a lot. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Something like "known or presumed coronavirus-related ICU admissions" would be a more reliable indicator of the actual rate of growth. I don't know to what extent that sort of data is available. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For the most part, we're counting (coronavirus tests x 7%) or something more so than we're counting coronavirus cases. This will be less true once testing becomes more adequate but it's gonna be true for at least a week or so and probably longer in some locations. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If anyone could get tested then the count would be much higher but also the curve would be growing less steeply because cases would have shown up in the data sooner. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @PerryNBCBoston: Just got off phone with Dr. Peter Slavin, president of Mass General. He is looking for anyone with a 3D printer to help… — PolitiTweet.org