Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 4, 2020

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Thu Mar 19 21:52:07 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Folks you've gotta be careful when you see numbers like "50% of the population will be infected with coronavirus within 6 weeks". Those assume that the virus essentially continues unchecked other than thru herd immunity. Continued social distancing should bend the curve a lot. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Something like "known or presumed coronavirus-related ICU admissions" would be a more reliable indicator of the actual rate of growth. I don't know to what extent that sort of data is available. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

While I get why people like to cite those numbers to spark action⁠—our testing/surveillance is way behind in the US, the numbers COULD get VERY bad without social distancing⁠—this is also a long game and I worry about the effects of citing numbers like that without context. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 19, 2020 Hibernated