Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, I wish we knew more about how much these activities have the potential to increase R. At least some evidence seems to suggest that outdoors is much safer than indoors, for instance. We're going to find out, I guess, because I don't expect people will stay inside all summer. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I wish we knew more about what this activity consisted of. Taking a nice, long drive to a non-crowded state park should be pretty safe, for instance. But pressure points seem to be outdoor activity in more crowded spaces, and small-to-medium-sized social gatherings. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That's not to say it's necessarily up to policymakers. I don't care about the state capitol protests, which are an overplayed story. But it's clear from e.g. mobility data that people are moving around more and abiding less strictly by social distancing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Overall, there isn't a lot of room for error. A few states have had clear, sustained improvement and may have room in their R "budget" to relax restrictions. But for many others, even slight changes could bring R >1. Or R may be >1 already. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That is a national average, however. There are places like NY where there's a reasonably steep decline (R of perhaps 0.7-0.8). In turn, there are likely to be other places where infections are still growing (R of perhaps 1.1 to 1.3) and it isn't just an artifact of more testing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The positive test rate, which I believe is a better metric than the raw number of + tests, continues to show slow, incremental improvement. But I do mean *slow*. It's consistent with a nationwide R of around 0.9, where R>1 means the epidemic is growing & R<1 means it's shrinking. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths: Today: 1,651 Yesterday: 1,743 One week ago (4/25): 1,818 Newly reported cases: T: 30K Y: 34K 4/25: 36K Newly reported tests: T: 265K Y: 305K 4/25: 271K Positive test rate: T: 11% Y: 11% 4/25: 13% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Texas, for instance, counts "Lab Confirmed COVID-19 Patients" to track its hospitalizations. NYC, conversely, tracks hospitalizations for people with COVID-19-like illness including flulike and pneumonia symptoms. (I am not sure if that's what rolls up into NY State's data.) https://t.co/6qhZWwbxjR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing to keep in mind is that changes in testing capacity can also change the reported number of *hospitalizations*, because some states/cities/hospitals only report *confirmed* COVID-19 cases as hospitalizations while others also report suspected cases. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @nataliemj10: Unless it's an aerial photo, you cannot tell how far apart people are once they're about 20 feet away from the camera. It'… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp You've gotta be a bit careful here. In some of the countries that have seen the steepest declines (e.g. Italy) it's likely due to partial herd immunity (same in NYC). And in some of the US states where cases are seemingly rising, it's because they're now doing much more testing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @mkonnikova: Yes, please join us!! @NateSilver538 playing, too. And many others. Great lineup, great cause, great game. https://t.co/Jwo… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

These numbers have fluctuated a bit has more data has come in. NY State now claiming 20% in NYC positive for COVID-19 antibodies, down from an earlier estimate of 25%. The numbers below are the first estimates by borough, I believe. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Please check out our new coronavirus podcast! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Apple's data also shows this. Not just in the US (it's pretty common across different countries). It's not a huge shift so far but also enough that there's likely something there. https://t.co/32iSFYgSGd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen @EconDerek @MattZeitlin In transit-heavy cities, I think commuting to work may be one of the last things that come back. You can walk/bike to a park or a restaurant in your neighborhood or whatever. Most people in NYC can't do that for work. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen @MattZeitlin I think the Cuomo Plan might be the consensus for the summer. In the fall, with more time indoors + worse weather + (maybe most pressingly) the question about schools, there are some really hard choices to make. Hopefully test/trace/isolate + treatments are a lot better by then. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen @MattZeitlin I think there's a difference between targeting R~=1 and deliberately keeping R>1 to in a plan to reach herd immunity. Also think there's a difference between a *planned* Sweden and an *unplanned* Sweden (the unplanned version likely a lot worse). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen @MattZeitlin 😬 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I would not call myself an optimist about the US's COVID position in any meaningful sense. But do think people are perhaps slightly discounting how doing more tests (a good thing!!) can make the numbers look worse/stagnant when there may be *some* improvement. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Tests have increased quite a bit. A daily record today. And a total of 1.6 million for the week. That's up 60% from two weeks ago. A big, meaningful improvement. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly-reported deaths Today: 1,793 Yesterday: 2,041 One week ago (4/24): 1,866 Newly-reported cases T: 35K Y: 28K 4/24: 35K Newly-reported tests T: 321K* Y: 205K 4/24: 232K Positive test rate T: 11% Y: 14% 4/24: 15% * New record — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jeffhauser Feel free to look up the numbers yourself! But yeah we have a lot of tourists. Also business travel, which I don't think is included here and per some research may be a bigger vector for spread because it tends to result in more prolonged contact. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jeffhauser The top 5 countries for tourist arrivals are: Spain, France, the US, China and Italy. Then a pretty big gap to everyone else. So, yeah, that would suggest there are some issues, given how those countries fared with COVID-19. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @wiederkehra: Very proud of the coverage our team (and wider @FiveThirtyEight) has thoughtfully put out around #COVID19. 🚢 We've done qu… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @onyxfish: (1/9) Over the past two months every single person on the @FiveThirtyEight Interactives Team has contributed to important, si… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kakape Not hacked. It's often like this. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A lot of models try to infer what these curves look like from the worst-affected areas. The problem is the worst-affected areas (e.g. NYC) likely have some benefit from partial herd immunity, so their curves will be unusually steep and may not replicate well elsewhere. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The contrast between the steady, reasonably steep decline in NY's COVID data (this is the positive test rate in NYC, but many NYC/NYS metrics have been pretty good lately) and the irregular, maybe-not-a-decline-at-all in the country as a whole, can really throw one for a loop. https://t.co/ivTDWgytgh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Anything that moves us in the direction of acknowledging that this is a messy, noisy, nasty problem—and policy choices and political leadership are only one of many factors—is something I'm a fan of. That does a better job of reflecting the outcomes we're seeing in reality. — PolitiTweet.org