Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 20, 2020

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Sat May 02 22:17:42 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That is a national average, however. There are places like NY where there's a reasonably steep decline (R of perhaps 0.7-0.8). In turn, there are likely to be other places where infections are still growing (R of perhaps 1.1 to 1.3) and it isn't just an artifact of more testing. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The positive test rate, which I believe is a better metric than the raw number of + tests, continues to show slow, incremental improvement. But I do mean *slow*. It's consistent with a nationwide R of around 0.9, where R>1 means the epidemic is growing & R<1 means it's shrinking. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Overall, there isn't a lot of room for error. A few states have had clear, sustained improvement and may have room in their R "budget" to relax restrictions. But for many others, even slight changes could bring R >1. Or R may be >1 already. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 2, 2020 Hibernated