Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 20, 2020

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Sat May 02 22:27:23 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Overall, there isn't a lot of room for error. A few states have had clear, sustained improvement and may have room in their R "budget" to relax restrictions. But for many others, even slight changes could bring R >1. Or R may be >1 already. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That is a national average, however. There are places like NY where there's a reasonably steep decline (R of perhaps 0.7-0.8). In turn, there are likely to be other places where infections are still growing (R of perhaps 1.1 to 1.3) and it isn't just an artifact of more testing. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That's not to say it's necessarily up to policymakers. I don't care about the state capitol protests, which are an overplayed story. But it's clear from e.g. mobility data that people are moving around more and abiding less strictly by social distancing. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 2, 2020 Hibernated