Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 17, 2020

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Fri May 01 16:55:44 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Anything that moves us in the direction of acknowledging that this is a messy, noisy, nasty problem—and policy choices and political leadership are only one of many factors—is something I'm a fan of. That does a better job of reflecting the outcomes we're seeing in reality. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's also likely to be a fair amount of almost literal randomness/stochasticity in outcomes. If a group of tourists from Bergamo decides to visit NYC rather than Toronto in February, that could make a big difference. Also, there may be different strains of the virus. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The contrast between the steady, reasonably steep decline in NY's COVID data (this is the positive test rate in NYC, but many NYC/NYS metrics have been pretty good lately) and the irregular, maybe-not-a-decline-at-all in the country as a whole, can really throw one for a loop. https://t.co/ivTDWgytgh — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 1, 2020 Hibernated