Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 17, 2020

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Fri May 01 16:48:50 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's also likely to be a fair amount of almost literal randomness/stochasticity in outcomes. If a group of tourists from Bergamo decides to visit NYC rather than Toronto in February, that could make a big difference. Also, there may be different strains of the virus. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For instance, it's easy to think of some disadvantages the US has, also. Lots of international visitors. Many people with pre-existing conditions. Higher average household size than parts of W. Europe (though low compared w/other regions). Also, NYC is its own unique beast. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Anything that moves us in the direction of acknowledging that this is a messy, noisy, nasty problem—and policy choices and political leadership are only one of many factors—is something I'm a fan of. That does a better job of reflecting the outcomes we're seeing in reality. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 1, 2020 Hibernated