Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 17, 2020

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Fri May 01 16:48:50 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For instance, it's easy to think of some disadvantages the US has, also. Lots of international visitors. Many people with pre-existing conditions. Higher average household size than parts of W. Europe (though low compared w/other regions). Also, NYC is its own unique beast. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you want to move in the direction of trying to control for other factors, and thereby tease out a residual for "quality of governmental response"... then I'm OK with that, at least in theory! In practice, which variables to pick from is a hard problem. — PolitiTweet.org

@NateSilver538 @mattyglesias We're 10th in per capita deaths despite: 1. Relatively late serious outbreak, 2. Much… https://t.co/gEB9eiZx4V

Posted May 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's also likely to be a fair amount of almost literal randomness/stochasticity in outcomes. If a group of tourists from Bergamo decides to visit NYC rather than Toronto in February, that could make a big difference. Also, there may be different strains of the virus. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 1, 2020 Hibernated