Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved I do find that site interesting but I'm talking a bit more about various experts / commentators framing their own claims in forms that more closely resemble falsifiable predictions. Or at least saying things like "OK, here's what would convince me that I was wrong..." — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Probably impractical, but in theory it might be worth thinking about what claims about coronavirus (say, you think the seroprevalence is at least x% in California) could be framed in the form of testable predictions. The predictions could be conditional and/or probabilistic. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I am surprised there is not more messaging one way or the other from public officials about when/whether you should seek care in hospitals for non-COVID conditions. This is likely pretty high stakes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here's some interesting data on hospital avoidance. In New York City, visits to the ER for asthma attacks are only around 1/4 of their usual levels. Same for vomiting-type symptoms and diarrhea. https://t.co/9w6hrcMO1Y https://t.co/SYZsbHN5dd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Another possible future - there's a vaccine in 12-18 months - people mostly go back to how they were living before but with greater awareness of pandemic risk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@youyanggu Yeah, Easter weekend was slow too, IIRC. Still, I feel better about things than I did a week ago. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Still: * Most tests in a day * Lowest positive test rate in a day * Fewest deaths reported since 3/31 * Fewest cases reported since 3/26 Sort of outlierishly good and likely isn't representative of the new normal. However, there have been signs of progress over the past week. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Caveats: 1) Mondays are typically slow for reporting, especially for deaths, so tomorrow's numbers may be a lot worse. 2) Looks like NJ reported a huge batch of >100K mostly negative tests. This happens from time to time; some states are slow to report negative test results. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking. Very good day but w/some caveats Newly reported deaths Today: 837 Yesterday: 979 One week ago (5/4): 912 Newly reported cases T: 18K Y: 22K 5/4: 21K Newly reported tests T: 395K Y: 278K 5/4: 232K Positive test rate T: 4% Y: 8% 5/4: 9% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Still, this is a slow re-opening. For instance, an *optimistic* timeline for restaurants opening for dine-in service on Long Island might be 6-7 weeks away, if it hits its benchmarks in 2-3 weeks (not crazy) and then Phases 1 and 2 go smoothy and last 2 weeks each (a lot to ask). https://t.co/evTxVyhEUs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Some regions already meet all 7 benchmarks and the others generally aren't *that* far away given that NY's numbers are improving a lot. https://t.co/UfP51zVvvt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here's NY's very detailed re-opening plan. Phased re-opening done by region, contingent on meeting/ continuing to meet 7 benchmarks, with a minimum of 2 weeks between phases. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart You misspelled "Las Vegas" — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart Well, most states only report *confirmed* deaths and confirming deaths can take a long time. And at least in theory, reporting could be affected by testing volume (as an edge case, you might not perform a posthumous test if you don't have a lot of tests). https://t.co/3cHTbrdjp4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @conorsen I wish there were more discussion around test rates and less about the horribly misinformed idea that deaths are being overcounted — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen @mattyglesias 3a. Some reporters feel as though reporting raw case counts is "just relaying facts" whereas reporting on the positive test rate is coming to an analytical judgement/"doing math" 3b. Reporting on % test rates *does* require some work because not all states report it reliably — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen @mattyglesias 2. Some pundits have an incentive to create partisan narratives (FWIW, I think Trump deserves a very, very low grade for his COVID response... but I also think the data on how much better or worse things are getting is noisy and complicated). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen @mattyglesias 2. Some pundits have an incentive to create partisan narratives (FWIW, I think Trump deserves a very, very low grade for his COVID response... but I also think the data on how much better worse things are getting is noisy and complicated). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen @mattyglesias I have a lot of theories about this. I think it's a combination of things: 1. Some well-intentioned experts don't want to create a false sense of security and so tend to lean into more pessimistic interpretations of the data especially when talking to reporters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @maggieNYT: Obama continues be one of the few elected officials to poll well in private surveys as well. A reminder the president isn’t… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Conversely, focusing on raw case counts will sometimes make GOOD news (more tests!) look like BAD news because quite often, an increase in detected cases reflects an increase in testing, even when the disease itself is steady/declining. That's a huge problem. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If the positive test rate is falling, then we know AT LEAST one of two GOOD things is happening. Either infections are falling OR we've figured out how to do more widespread testing, or both. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

IDK but mostly I think news organizations should replace their charts on *raw confirmed case counts* with charts on the *positive test rate* and how it varies over time. That does create complications of its own, but it's a better first approximation IMO. https://t.co/tCd2vl8feU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Experts estimate that only something like 1 in 10 coronavirus *infections* are turning into confirmed *cases* in the US. So long as that's the case, the number of confirmed cases is going to be very sensitive to how much testing we're doing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's misleading b/c testing has roughly doubled over the past month in non-NY states and if you do 2x more testing, you'll find a lot more cases. It's true that the numbers have turned around in NY, but the story in other states may be more encouraging than the chart implies. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Turning the election into a referendum on Obama vs. Trump would seem to be one of the dumbest possible moves for Trump given Obama's popularity, which was pretty good when he left office and has improved since. https://t.co/o7rjeF6k4s — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @micahcohen: People started staying home before the government asked them to: https://t.co/7qwYLeSFHH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kpelton @jon_bois lol I was literally going to make this joke — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Neoavatara @thehowie Yeah, and any sort of strategy around case isolation. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To some extent, the failure to account for increased testing makes the suppression strategy called for by many experts look less effective than it may actually have been. Look at the case numbers, and it seems like we're stagnating. But the positive test RATE has gone down a lot. — PolitiTweet.org