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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Most of the firms you describe as "GOP aligned" do not have any formal affiliation with the GOP (Trafalgar is more ambiguous: we do treat them as partisan). They just have results that are more R than consensus. And BTW they've been among the more accurate pollsters lately. — PolitiTweet.org
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@NateSilver538 Seems like you're conflating polls by GOP aligned firms that *regularly* release data with internal… https://t.co/FUJi8IOij2
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@conorsen Yeah, I'm kind of torn between two hypothesis: i) in a world where polling is somewhat broken, long the fundamentals (good for GOP); ii) in a world where polling is somewhat broken, short the vibes (good for Dems). — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In some sense, polling averages are increasingly functioning *like betting markets*, in that you're looking at who's willing to pay some price (the cost of the poll + reputational risk) to register an opinion. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
But it is worth noting that the composition of the polling averages is much different, and more R-leaning, than it was even two years ago. It is probably unwise to assume the polling averages have an anti-GOP bias **as opposed to a bias that could run in either direction**. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I think generally the complaint that GOP-leaning pollsters are "flooding the zone" is not sharp. 538s averages can adjust for them to some extent via house effects. And it's a free market. D-leaning pollsters could release polls too if they wanted; that they don't says something. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
She's not out of the woods but Hochul-Zeldin has the feeling of a race that could have been a surprise if nobody had seen it coming, but is less likely to be now that it's been widely hyped/polled as a potential upset, which could drag more NY Democrats to the polls. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@waitbutwhy @BillyM2k If they're removing verification from the bundle of services ("Twitter Blue") that you're paying $8 for, that would be a smart pivot. But I have no reason to think that's what they're doing. (I asked @Jason about this in a thread yesterday but he didn't respond FWIW.) — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@dandrezner THE VIBES ARE COMING FROM INSIDE THE HOUSE — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I think Redd's case is stronger than Bleu's just because it's much simpler (polls less reliable means trust the fundamentals more, fundamentals are good for Republicans) but Bleu raises a few solid points. https://t.co/hW61W9R920 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
And here's my other alter ego, Nathaniel Bleu, making the case for Democratic overperformance. https://t.co/hW61Wa8c40 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@kavithadavidson @MikeBatesTWIBH Maybe Yankee/Citi get stuck in between. MSG/Barclays are convenient, prestigious venues but have limited seating. If that doesn't work, you go to the other extreme and get as much capacity as possible. Plus many acts that can sell out a stadium cater to an older, suburban crowd. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Reminder that if polling accuracy is in decline (probably true) that doesn't make forecasting via the vibes good. The vibes are always dumb. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@chrislhayes There are unambiguously like 5x to 10x more ads for me, most of them extremely spammy, not sure if this a universal experience but it's definitely not just in your head. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@lxeagle17 Yeah if people stuck to that their argument might be more credible but instead they're snorting lines of early voting hopium. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@kmedved The media is broadly unpopular among the American public. It's certainly higher-status among certain social classes and subgroups, but that's true for a lot of professions? Like a lot of "creative" occupations, it is high-variance from a status standpoint. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
As a journalist I have lots of spicy takes about journalists but I don't buy that journalists are especially status-driven. Journalism is not a super high-status occupation. It may increasingly select for people who want to influence public opinion, which creates its own issues. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@Jason Is the idea still that verification is coupled with Twitter Blue? I wouldn't doubt you could create enough features to make Twitter Blue "worth it". But verification is not a service *for me* so much as *for Twitter* to make the platform more trustworthy for users & advertisers. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Our biennial PSA to pollsters: Barring exceptional circumstances, we'll run our final 538 midterm forecast just after midnight on Tuesday morning. So get those polls out before midnight if you want 'em included in 538's forecast. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias @elonmusk One thing too is the VC guys tend to think of Twitter as "place for vigorous debate in the public sphere" as opposed to "place to disseminate news in real time" or "news/opinion/expertise aggregator". Verification not so important for the former function but is for the latter 2. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@kmedved OK but YouTube pays content creators! Give me 75% of the marginal revenue I generate for Twitter and I'll happily kick back $8/month. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I'm getting massively more spammy "promoted Tweets" today than I ever have before, so maybe this literally is the plan. Make the platform exceptionally annoying unless you do pay 8 bucks. — PolitiTweet.org
kang @jaycaspiankang
If bots are really a problem, (idk I only get crypto bots from time to time) and 8 dollars a month gets you protect… https://t.co/w3vN4IMUxC
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@kmedved I'm not sure how much I buy that because the plan seems more to be "downgrade the experience from the pre-Elon status quo if you don't pay" more so than "upgrade the experience if you do pay". — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Does Elon have more skin in the game than the typical business owner? Less, I'd think. Most CEOs aren't also running two other business. And many have a higher % of their financial net worth tied up than Elon does in Twitter, especially considering diminishing marginal utility. — PolitiTweet.org
Russ Roberts @EconTalker
When someone has $44B of skin in the game they probably have a better idea of what is good for them than you do. Yo… https://t.co/LHRWAmzW4R
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The new NBC/WSJ poll reports that 43-year-old women named Brenda have gone from favoring Democrats by 100 points in October to favoring Republicans by 100 points now (margin of error: 100%), a massive 200-POINT SHIFT. #RedWave — PolitiTweet.org
Hugh Hewitt @hughhewitt
“The new survey shows that white women living in suburban areas, who make up 20% of the electorate, now favor Repub… https://t.co/H7tb7dsU43
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Here's the bull case for Republicans on Tuesday based on a conversation with my alter ego, Nathan Redd. https://t.co/t1qgEurOck — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@conorsen Yeah, does seem true for airfares. https://t.co/z2K5EMiUNj — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@conorsen I would like to see inflation data for hotels and airfares in Vegas. I'm there, um, a lot, and anecdotally, seems more tame than elsewhere. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The KD-era Brooklyn Nets have to be the most tragicomic sports team of all time. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @galendruke: Come join us in 30 mins! — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's all been within the range of 50/50, and 51/49 one way fundamentally isn't much different than 51/49 the other way, but still the first GOP lead by any margin in our Senate forecast since July. https://t.co/ImBoBkGHdD https://t.co/UOyf8wT8eJ — PolitiTweet.org
