Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 4, 2022

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Sat Nov 05 15:49:27 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Yeah, I'm kind of torn between two hypothesis: i) in a world where polling is somewhat broken, long the fundamentals (good for GOP); ii) in a world where polling is somewhat broken, short the vibes (good for Dems). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 5, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In some sense, polling averages are increasingly functioning *like betting markets*, in that you're looking at who's willing to pay some price (the cost of the poll + reputational risk) to register an opinion. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 5, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Most of the firms you describe as "GOP aligned" do not have any formal affiliation with the GOP (Trafalgar is more ambiguous: we do treat them as partisan). They just have results that are more R than consensus. And BTW they've been among the more accurate pollsters lately. — PolitiTweet.org

@NateSilver538 Seems like you're conflating polls by GOP aligned firms that *regularly* release data with internal… https://t.co/FUJi8IOij2

Posted Nov. 5, 2022