Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @K_LDivergence: https://t.co/tXmhyruOuF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think it's completely crazy to think things could get bad enough that states would eventually secede—or try to—but I think it'd more likely be blue states doing the seceding than red states if Republicans succeeded in overturning the results of an election at some point. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Craig_A_Spencer: THIS JUST IN! A panel of outside experts has recommended the issuance of a @US_FDA emergency use authorization for th… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Craig_A_Spencer: THIS JUST IN! A panel of outside experts has recommended the issuance of a @US_FDA emergency use authorization for th… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The theory here, which seems perfectly reasonable, is that Biden voters were more likely to sit around at home and socially distance while Trump voters tended to be out and about more, and it's going to be a lot easier to poll someone if they're sitting around at home. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are some confounders here, but decently strong evidence that states with bigger COVID outbreaks at the time of the election had larger polling errors. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidshor I'm not sure I've seen that discussed anywhere. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That's not to say "we're going to have Zoom Thanksgiving again"—I don't think it will come to that, fortunately. But we need to not lose momentum on encouraging vaccination, especially since immunity acquired through infection may fade for some people at 1+ years out. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One last thing to worry about a tiny bit is the chance of a small wave next fall/winter. If things are going well by late summer, it may be harder to persuade people to be vaccinated and people will really let their guard down. But resuming crowded indoor activity could be risky. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The other thing that seems likely is there will be some pretty fierce debates in that interim period from April-July or so about faster or slower paths to reopening. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The one major downside scenario is if vaccines prevent disease but don't do much to curb *infection*. Otherwise though these seem like pretty middle-of-the-road assumptions. I think he may underplay the role of seasonality a bit, which could help in the summer. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This seems like a fairly realistic set of assumptions for what to expect on the COVID-19 front next year as vaccinations begin to roll out. Things start to get notably better by ~April but it takes until mid-to-late summer before we approach herd immunity. https://t.co/ZJdszwrlUt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @thehowie: Great thread on whether we have enough information to pivot to using Pfizer vaccine as a one-shot to maximize impact. TL; D… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You shouldn't, on the one hand, claim that Trump's recent actions are a unique, existential threat to democracy (which I agree with, BTW!) and then, on the other hand, cite decisions that are an order of magnitude or two less important to claim that courts have been terrible. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are a lot of responses to this that cite decisions (or minority opinons) liberals dislike but which concern cases that are much less severe than the sorts of decisions that would allow Trump to steal the election. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That doesn't mean you can't ask people to avoid seeing folks outside their household. Given the very bad situation in the US now + the very promising news on vaccines, now is a good time to make that ask. But it's a big ask and the ask may be more persuasive if we recognize that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So much COVID coverage—not all of it, but a *lot* of it—inexplicably seems to underestimate how much human beings want to be around other human beings. Starting from the premise that this is a hard thing for people to give up might yield better policy. https://t.co/VRrAW3d1vP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, it's pretty misleading when Pfizer cites only 52% efficacy from a single dose. Have seen several experts cite 80-85% ish efficacy instead from looking at this data. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Please don't mistake me for being optimistic about the long run. I'm not. The fact that courts have resoundingly rejected Trump's attempts to overturn the election, though, is a reason for optimism, among other reasons for pessimism. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As a PSA, I've found that some restaurants that you might think of as "sit-down places" have really upped their delivery and takeout game during the pandemic. Please consider supporting your favorite restaurants in this way if you have the means to do so. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @COVID19Tracking: Our daily update is published. States reported 1.8 million tests, 210k cases, and a record 106,688 COVID-19 patients i… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@nataliemj10 @cragcrest That's great! Those August days when you feel like you put twice as much work in for worse results aren't so fun, though... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@cragcrest @nataliemj10 Yeah, my experience is also that 40-45 degrees is pretty ideal! Maybe even more so if you're a casual runner because I feel like I can get several good runs in a week at those temps, whereas in the summer I'll have to abort early a lot and it's hard to get any momentum going. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@nataliemj10 I've found that the cooler weather is realllly nice for running. I mean not nice in terms of pleasant but really nice for longer distances, personal bests, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

No candidate who won both Georgia and Pennsylvania has ever lost the election. https://t.co/L6ErmD4823 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sometimes I think there's reluctance to talk about age-based COVID risks because of concern about giving young people a false sense of security, etc. But per the CDC, the fatality rate for someone 70+ is about *300 times higher* than someone aged 20-49. It is a HUGE difference. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Given how much higher fatality rates are for older people—they are MUCH MUCH higher—I wonder if a schedule like this doesn't prioritize age enough. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Perhaps not coincidently, neither Mitt Romney nor the Supreme Court needs to worry about a primary challenge. I mean, Romney technically does but he's very popular in Utah and may not run for another term and is extremely set-for-life if he doesn't. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One perhaps-not-terrible heuristic is to think of the current SCOTUS as being.... Mitt Romney. It's certainly quite conservative and doesn't remotely endorse the liberal worldview. But it's not particularly partisan or Trumpist and it cares about its institutional legacy. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ObsoleteDogma It wasn't me I don't think! But for sure, there are a lot of selection-bias issues in which cases make it to the Court, which is problematic for mathematical models of how the Court lines up ideologically. — PolitiTweet.org