Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 31, 2020

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Thu Dec 10 21:32:19 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The other thing that seems likely is there will be some pretty fierce debates in that interim period from April-July or so about faster or slower paths to reopening. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The one major downside scenario is if vaccines prevent disease but don't do much to curb *infection*. Otherwise though these seem like pretty middle-of-the-road assumptions. I think he may underplay the role of seasonality a bit, which could help in the summer. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One last thing to worry about a tiny bit is the chance of a small wave next fall/winter. If things are going well by late summer, it may be harder to persuade people to be vaccinated and people will really let their guard down. But resuming crowded indoor activity could be risky. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2020