Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 31, 2020

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Thu Dec 10 21:27:24 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The one major downside scenario is if vaccines prevent disease but don't do much to curb *infection*. Otherwise though these seem like pretty middle-of-the-road assumptions. I think he may underplay the role of seasonality a bit, which could help in the summer. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This seems like a fairly realistic set of assumptions for what to expect on the COVID-19 front next year as vaccinations begin to roll out. Things start to get notably better by ~April but it takes until mid-to-late summer before we approach herd immunity. https://t.co/ZJdszwrlUt — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The other thing that seems likely is there will be some pretty fierce debates in that interim period from April-July or so about faster or slower paths to reopening. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2020