Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I have no idea what the right answers are here but it kind of seems like British epidemiologists are Bayesians and American ones are frequentists. https://t.co/rUeftmO1y5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie This data is based on share of doses administered and not doses per capita. But rural states do seem to be doing a bit better so far. On the other hand, lots of exceptions. DC doing well, CT doing relatively well. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

No correlation so far between state partisanship (Trump's vote share) and the share of vaccine doses distributed so far. (Yes, I checked this on a more formal basis.) Both blue states and red states have a handful of success stories and a lot of failures. https://t.co/MrxIwfTQKc https://t.co/DxgSubkB34 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @owasow: Seems plausible that: — McConnell’s pre-election opposition to a Covid relief bill cost Trump the presidency — Trump’s post-e… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

First night of operation for Moynihan Train Hall. Hopefully will be a long time before we see it this empty again. https://t.co/X324MawaE2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I mean, the AHIP definition of essential worker was broad enough to include 60% of the workforce. So the floodgates are already pretty open. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That's why I favor simple, age based systems e.g. Tier 1) Age 75+, health care workers, nursing homes, severely immunocompromised Tier 2) Age 65-74 Tier 3) Everyone else Within tiers, reduce queues by creating groups based on randomly chosen month of birth or last digit of SSN. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Rigorous verification will take time and slow things down. Lax verification will make things a free-for-all. I don't think these plans are well thought out. If you're going to have subcategories, make them narrow, specific and easy to verify (e.g. "public school teachers"). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And you know what'll probably be worse? Having hard-to-define categories like essential workers or pre-existing conditions. There are lots of borderline cases (and some people who will try to cheat the system). Who's going to verify who qualifies? Big administrative burden. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

While this might sound like posturing by de Blasio, New York indeed has a fairly complicated set of categories and subcategories for who is in which tier and it's plausible to think that's slowing things down. https://t.co/RJROm0LAUk https://t.co/leLR9p6tf5 https://t.co/dC7r3jEt1E — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is a good post. We've made a lot of weird policy choices on COVID in looking for perfect solutions while ignoring imperfect ones that could clearly help on the margins. https://t.co/5HBviIEfTu https://t.co/uj3myJl0ns — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

New York: The City That Never Sleeps Except When It Comes To Delivering The Vaccine To Stop The Worst Pandemic In A Century — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @mattyglesias: 🎅🏻 🎄 😬 https://t.co/1TaghOjm7r — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @JenAshleyWright: After 2020 I'm never going to question why they keep opening up Jurassic Park despite obvious safety issues. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @trvrb: @NateSilver538 Weighting of prior is difficult. We've seen other lineages rapidly increase in frequency due to epi circumstance… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbenton Some surveys find vaccine hesistancy among healthcare workers is >= to the general population. https://t.co/tZzMAUB9Rl — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@trvrb Thank you, that's all super helpful. I was wondering how much to weigh the prior against what looks (to my untrained eye) to be reasonably compelling evidence of higher transmissability. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @trvrb: @NateSilver538 I'd think of this a bit like polling data where you inject extra uncertainty beyond what is strictly necessary to… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @trvrb: @NateSilver538 Hi Nate! Context is that I agree with median modeled estimates of increased transmissibility of ~50% (https://t.c… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Another question for the epis on here is: how context-sensitive are these transmissability numbers? Is a variant that was say 50% more transmissible in the context of the UK in fall/winter 2020 also likely to be ~50% more transmissable in e.g. the US in winter/spring 2021? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @apoorva_nyc: @NateSilver538 @trvrb The estimates so far are based on just observational data. But there are other explanations (for eg,… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

10-20% more transmissable vs 56% or 70% seems like a pretty big difference. @trvrb does great threads on Twitter and hoping we'll get an explainer at some point about why it might be a higher or lower number. https://t.co/XVnvUbP0sT https://t.co/4KQyIr1dmZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@philipaklein Yeah. I know it's a small country, etc. but it's truly an amazing accomplishment that I hope will be studied for years to come. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't know whether it's reassuring or troubling that other countries are having trouble rolling out their vaccines, too. The US is actually 4th in doses administred per capita (way behind Israel and Bahrain and slightly behind the UK). https://t.co/njk8QSk5gK https://t.co/09Ygz5Nly9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

While that would be significant progress, it's worth noting that the current vaccines require two doses and we'd actually need a faster pace than that (~1.5m/month) to keep up with all the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine that is scheduled to be delivered by July. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @thehowie: @NateSilver538 The EUA is a great step. But it is hard to force someone to use a vaccine that has yet to be approved by our o… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not necessarily for mandating vaccines in general as I don't know that it helps encourage use, but for people who work in nursing homes, yes, absolutely. Take the vaccine or find a new job. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This was one of those times when writing a story changed my mind a bit. It's very easy to have a surface-level take that of course Republicans must be favored in Georgia. But I don't think that really holds up well to scrutiny. It's a fairly pure tossup. https://t.co/gqMI9pQ9kK https://t.co/UtEn74g0HZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @BallouxFrancois: @ProfEmilyOster is a Professor of Economics but she has a strong background in public health and has published extensi… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is not newsworthy. To achieve 95% effectiveness, you need to wait 10-14 days after the *second* dose. This was less time than that after the *first* dose. And 95% is not 100% anyway. — PolitiTweet.org