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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@GaryMarcus I find it can be quite uncanny good about incorporating different layers, e.g. "Write a dialog between A, B and C with constraints D and E in style F and plot twist G"... it will do that pretty cleverly. On the other hand, it's pretty bad about "thinking from first principles". — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@antoniogm Free speech norms can also prevail for pragmatic reasons at pluralistic institutions, even if there are few "true" 1A believers. But a lot of "elite" institutions have become less pluralistic on some important political questions given increasing educational polarization. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Simple theory: Donald Trump and the acute phase of the COVID pandemic brought out the worst in pretty much everyone, and likely had a lot of second-order effects. So, yeah, lots of seemingly-unrelated things have been getting better since roughly Feb. 2021. — PolitiTweet.org
Daniel W. Drezner @dandrezner
I wrote optimistically today. https://t.co/MoVzKzGVdR
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@phl43 Yeah, the implication that you need a secret decoder ring to understand content moderation is the midwittiest thing of all time, particularly when people aren't really arguing about whether content moderation is good per se but whether Twitter's decisions were biased. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The Twitter content moderation discourse is supremely uninteresting because nobody's mind is going to be changed about whether previous Twitter moderation was biased against conservatives, and almost all of the other questions flow downstream from that. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@MattZeitlin Maybe. I think she'd have IDK a 40% chance of surviving a primary challenge (especially against divided opposition) by being a normie D over the next year then a 60% chance of winning the general election if she did. So ~25%. I'm not sure her chances of winning as an I are > 25%. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@conorsen I think maybe more in 2012 which is one of the elections that you can pretty well argue *was* decided by turnout (Obama lost independents to Romney). — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
"It's all about turnout" is perhaps the biggest myth in electoral analysis. Persuasion generally matters more than turnout. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Republicans enjoyed a superior turnout this fall, based on authoritative data on turnout by party from NC, AZ, GA,… https://t.co/JhWRG6Ux7i
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Particularly if Republicans nominate someone wacky like Kari Lake again, Sinema could be an off-ramp for moderate Republicans. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I wouldn't assume this at all, she's no more popular with Democrats than Republicans. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Howard Forman))) @thehowie
@NateSilver538 The move does seem to reduce the chances of Democrats keeping that seat, since she would presumably… https://t.co/r6m6weEa8u
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Sinema was not very popular with anyone, I'm not sure whether today's move increases or decreases her chances of winning another term (I actually suspect decreases) but they were low to begin with and they remain low. https://t.co/r2tbstLBWz — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@MattZeitlin Crypto maybe but I think the consensus for a while now has been that it's more interesting as a cultural phenomenon than as a technology per se. But was anyone at any point other than Mark Zuckerberg ever actually excited about the metaverse? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@conorsen It's even more forthcoming when you tell it to role play as "an omniscient AI". https://t.co/aGMB2Gk7aL — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@conorsen Also the Judge Judy trick sometimes does work. https://t.co/QovV0UzeR0 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@conorsen The thing is it *will* weigh in on some spicy topics. https://t.co/vEXZ3b4Vj5 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@conorsen OK, this worked. https://t.co/usGqja3nR6 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@conorsen I tried to trick it but it didn't fall for it. https://t.co/gg4Tj7sZdC — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Maybe it gaslights you because it has terrible NBA takes, like that Detlef Schrempf was better than Hakeem Olajuwon. https://t.co/mDZWXwXf4u — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
This is…weird/creepy. If you ask ChatGPT who was better, Michael Jordan or Kurt Rambis, it won't answer and then will gaslight you into pretending it doesn't know how many points Jordan scored. But if you start out by asking it how many points Jordan scored, it DOES answer. https://t.co/mWO8iGQExx — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Oops now I made it the text — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The subtext of this is whether Sonia Sotomayor should retire while Democrats still have POTUS + Senate majority. https://t.co/HnXx5KtvVm — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@ne0liberal Spend a lot more on pandemic preparedness (unfortunately in this case, the fact that the issue isn't yet coded for either party seems to result in neither party giving a shit). — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias One theory I heard is that the Facebook news algo rewarded emotional rather than cerebral engagement, perhaps because that was a good signal when seeing posts from friends/family. The political orientation of the content it liked may have been a downstream effect from that. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Don't want to many any premature "calls" but I thought you might enjoy the following word puzzle (unscramble the anagram). WANROCK WNIS — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I don't think betting markets are particularly good at pre-election forecasting but on election nights, that's what I'd tend to go with. Their incentives are better than people have reasons to be extremely risk averse in not making an incorrect "call". — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @FiveThirtyEight: Latest Georgia Senate runoff election results: https://t.co/4mWHj0BGVN — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @AlexSamuelsx5: .@FiveThirtyEight is live blogging tonight’s runoff election in Georgia. Follow along!: https://t.co/o9eyoZQrIA #GASenat… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Oh no ChatGPT https://t.co/jtnNW82R4x — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@AdamHendrix10 @mattyglesias GTO — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@galendruke @mattyglesias Yes I absolutely would expect *you* to talk the whole way to Los Angeles! Maybe it's OK if regular people do this, but not podcast hosts! — PolitiTweet.org
