Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 17, 2023

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Fri Dec 09 14:03:32 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I think maybe more in 2012 which is one of the elections that you can pretty well argue *was* decided by turnout (Obama lost independents to Romney). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 9, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

"It's all about turnout" is perhaps the biggest myth in electoral analysis. Persuasion generally matters more than turnout. — PolitiTweet.org

Republicans enjoyed a superior turnout this fall, based on authoritative data on turnout by party from NC, AZ, GA,… https://t.co/JhWRG6Ux7i

Posted Dec. 9, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin Maybe. I think she'd have IDK a 40% chance of surviving a primary challenge (especially against divided opposition) by being a normie D over the next year then a 60% chance of winning the general election if she did. So ~25%. I'm not sure her chances of winning as an I are > 25%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 9, 2022