Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 17, 2023

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Fri Dec 09 14:08:18 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin Maybe. I think she'd have IDK a 40% chance of surviving a primary challenge (especially against divided opposition) by being a normie D over the next year then a 60% chance of winning the general election if she did. So ~25%. I'm not sure her chances of winning as an I are > 25%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 9, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I think maybe more in 2012 which is one of the elections that you can pretty well argue *was* decided by turnout (Obama lost independents to Romney). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 9, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The Twitter content moderation discourse is supremely uninteresting because nobody's mind is going to be changed about whether previous Twitter moderation was biased against conservatives, and almost all of the other questions flow downstream from that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 9, 2022