Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm People keep trying to defend the article on the grounds that, in theory, the HIT could be reached when transmission is fairly high. But that's not what the article is doing. Rather, it plainly argues for an extraordinarily risk-averse approach; less than 1 case per 100K people! https://t.co/BtaqOYxSmQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki I think the "reopened too soon" narrative is strange when applied to California, which was among the last states to open up. I'd agree though that they've been irrational about trying to limit outdoor activity, which may have backfired. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conor64 In NYC there seems to be almost deliberate ambiguity about what happens with extra doses and a lot of vaccine sites are staffed by overworked/underpaid/recently-trained employees or volunteers who are forced to constantly put out 10 fires at once, so policies may be inconsistent. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Protentialmn @Matthew_Waxman Under. Once vaccines are available essentially on demand (likely by early May) I think the norm, for better or worse, will be that stuff is happening and you're responsible for your own risk. And it's not as though the gaming industry or its customers are known for risk aversion. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Possible were gonna hit 100 million doses in Biden's first *50* days. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BioTurboNick I understand how normal people will read this article I think it frames things in a way that sends a really discouraging message that will make them say "fuck this shit". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I've seen plenty of "you can't go back to normal even after vaccines" articles but I *think* this is the first "you can't go back to normal even after herd immunity!" article I've seen. (Thankfully, most people have more common sense than this.) https://t.co/oipV9KYBVQ https://t.co/0XDKD8yPHD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

He's Democrats' most valuable senator. Almost no way another Democrat holds that seat. He defects from the party fairly often but rarely when his vote would be decisive on major issues. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @juruwolfe: While overall unemployment barely budged, unemployment among Black Americans went up, as this recession continues to exacerb… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So governors will wind up improvising, in ways that are potentially pretty suboptimal. (Does Connecticut really need to open indoor dining to 100% capacity right away at basically the very time of year it gets pleasant enough to dine outdoors in the Northeast?). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Like, if you're a governor, it isn't helpful to hear this! 10k cases is a hard threshold to meet. Exactly HOW hard depends on a lot of unknowns. It could be in 6 weeks! It could be in 18 months! It could be no-time-in-the-foreseeable-future. https://t.co/EF9X1XBVnx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ForecasterEnten #Ackshawlly it's DST that's good and standard time (what I call "daylight wasting time") that's bad. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @maggiekb1: So this is probably going to get me yelled at, but I want to talk a little about a sci com issue around the J&J vaccine and… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's a fine line, though, between expectations-lowering and encouraging vaccine hesitancy. I would guess there are quite a few people out there who don't realize they're eligible for a vaccine and that—at least in *some* states—it's now much easier to find an appointment. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Looks like the White House's expectations-lowering has worked! 53% of Americans think it'll be at least 4 months before "most people in their local area" will be able to get a vaccine, when it's probably going to be more like 4 weeks. https://t.co/MUg0KPtYM8 https://t.co/71DUuylGTW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In a world with vaccines, cases are no longer a terribly meaningful metric: * Countries are (however imperfectly) vaccinating the vulnerable first, which lowers the fatality rate. * Vaccines are more effective at stopping hospitalizations and deaths than mild/asymptomatic COVID. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Israel's death rate has fallen by 70% in 5 weeks. That's not stubbornly high. That's awesome. https://t.co/0Q9UVOuPxe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I don't know. We basically have 4 different channels in NYC (state-run, city-run, retail pharmacies, hospitals). We're getting people vaccinated pretty fast, which is good, and the state is doing some smart things (24-hour sites). But it's a BIG advantage to be tech/news-savvy. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

(As a further FYI, I'm not super inclined to give people vaccine-hunting tips at channels where vaccines are scarce. But these pharmacies have been underused, with a lot of availability, especially at Walgreens.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FYI, it looks like teachers are now able to receive a vaccine through retail pharmacies (Walgreens, Rite Aid, etc.) in NYC. (Also confirmed this with a teacher friend who has an appointment.) Previously only age 65+ could use these channels. https://t.co/P5g9mKIWJj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

"Why aren't blue states following CDC guidance?" is a more interesting question than why red states aren't doing so. I assume its likely because i) the CDC is seen as overcautious and ii) they aren't laying out specific milestones (dates, metrics) so states have to improvise. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WesPegden The problem is that this has been going on for a year now and even sympathetic elected officials (e.g. mayors and governors in blue states) seem to have realized that they have to discount whatever advice they're being given by X%. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WesPegden My guess in these cases is they don't literally believe the projections (e.g. they wouldn't stake money on them) but they think they're telling a noble lie and they don't have much to lose since they can always say "it was just a scenario and thankfully people were more careful". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The news here is mixed. That forecast shows about now is when you'd expect the decline to turn into more of a plateau. On the other hand, it doesn't show a spike. But! This model assumed that we were issuing 1 million vaccine doses a day, and now we're up to roughly twice that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, the CDC's forecast from January of what happens when you have rising levels of B.1.1.7 on the one hand, but vaccination happening on the other hand, has been rather accurate so far (see the graph on the right which pretty closely matches real-world data). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Neoavatara Why not just say "Vaccines do considerably reduce transmission, but not eliminate it completely. So long as community transmission is high, we're making the small ask for vaccinated people to keep masking up. We'll likely be able to ditch this ask once transmission falls more." — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Neoavatara Ironically this is getting to be like the "no PROOF masks reduce transmission" debate from last year. Demanding ABSOLUTE PROOF is a near-impossible standard but there's LOTS of evidence HIGHLY SUGGESTIVE vaccines reduce (but not eliminate) transmission, as the article points out! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm biased but this is AWESOME for NBA geeks. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ryanabest: 🚨🏀 New Interactive Alert 🏀🚨 @jayboice and I rigged up a machine that lets you reconfigure NBA rosters however you want and… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You can literally schedule a vaccine appointment in the middle of the night now in NYC, which is pretty cool. https://t.co/DWhFuKjmX6 — PolitiTweet.org