Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 25, 2021

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Thu Mar 04 15:43:55 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Neoavatara Why not just say "Vaccines do considerably reduce transmission, but not eliminate it completely. So long as community transmission is high, we're making the small ask for vaccinated people to keep masking up. We'll likely be able to ditch this ask once transmission falls more." — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 4, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Neoavatara Ironically this is getting to be like the "no PROOF masks reduce transmission" debate from last year. Demanding ABSOLUTE PROOF is a near-impossible standard but there's LOTS of evidence HIGHLY SUGGESTIVE vaccines reduce (but not eliminate) transmission, as the article points out! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 4, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, the CDC's forecast from January of what happens when you have rising levels of B.1.1.7 on the one hand, but vaccination happening on the other hand, has been rather accurate so far (see the graph on the right which pretty closely matches real-world data). — PolitiTweet.org

The CDC's forecasting agrees with this. The graph on the right shows what happens if we start out with an Rt of ~0.… https://t.co/b7x7fp3hxl

Posted March 4, 2021