Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 25, 2021

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Thu Mar 04 19:04:06 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The news here is mixed. That forecast shows about now is when you'd expect the decline to turn into more of a plateau. On the other hand, it doesn't show a spike. But! This model assumed that we were issuing 1 million vaccine doses a day, and now we're up to roughly twice that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 4, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, the CDC's forecast from January of what happens when you have rising levels of B.1.1.7 on the one hand, but vaccination happening on the other hand, has been rather accurate so far (see the graph on the right which pretty closely matches real-world data). — PolitiTweet.org

The CDC's forecasting agrees with this. The graph on the right shows what happens if we start out with an Rt of ~0.… https://t.co/b7x7fp3hxl

Posted March 4, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WesPegden My guess in these cases is they don't literally believe the projections (e.g. they wouldn't stake money on them) but they think they're telling a noble lie and they don't have much to lose since they can always say "it was just a scenario and thankfully people were more careful". — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 4, 2021