Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ZoeMcLaren @DKThomp This is super helpful, thank you! I think people often fail to grasp how much of a difference R being just slightly less than 1 vs. slightly greater than one makes when you start to compound that over a few weeks/months. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ZoeMcLaren: @NateSilver538 @DKThomp Exponential decay kicks in when R<1 through any combination of measures. And brings cases down real… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp Yeah many unknowns. Seroprevalence estimates are rough. And it's hard to find reliable estimates of exactly how prevalent the variants are. I do think it's likely we'd be losing rather than (for the time being) narrowly winning the race against variants with the EUs vaccine pace. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp I keep hoping for one of the Actual Epidemiologists to do some counterfactual modeling where they look at what the current US trajectory would look like given the EU's vaccine pace. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp Seems decently easy to explain? All of continental Europe has much lower vaccination rates than the US. And Eastern Europe (which didn't have as many problems in the spring and so had one fewer wave than the US or Western Europe) likely also has less seroprevalence. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Meanwhile, the New England states seem to be pro-year-round-DST because it gets dark there awfully early but really all of New England (save perhaps CT which has ties to NY) should probably be in the Atlantic Time Zone. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Ehh, the problem is that some of these cities are in the wrong time zone. All of Michigan and Indiana should probably be in the Central Time Zone and all of northwestern Michigan (which means the Upper Peninsula) certainly should be. https://t.co/nV5lZaQHkc https://t.co/2vo0uoS4WE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The EU has vaccinated only 7% of its population whereas we're at 20%. It's still possible there'll be another surge here. But mostly what that would seem to imply is that it's good we're vaccinating people quickly and the EU screwed up by not doing so. https://t.co/f2MHCjdTKJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, since B.1.1.7 was first detected in Florida (in late December), we've gone from something like 20-25% of the US having some degree of immunity to maybe 40-50% now. And perhaps on the high end of that range in FL. So that makes a difference. https://t.co/VIH3lx658D — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @PaulSaxMD: Spot-on analysis of this problematic report of long covid in people who (reportedly) never had symptoms during acute infecti… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Cases are still declining in Florida even though the more contagious B.1.1.7 was projected to be the dominant strain there by now. https://t.co/LHSbwKgPZa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Be careful until you're vaccinated, please. But in the city's data, the 7-day average positivity rate has decreased to 6.3% from 7.3% two weeks ago, i.e. 14% decline. Does that really count as a plateau? https://t.co/Jus3gEtYKa https://t.co/x5B1XNPRMs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@katiebakes I was an an extremely strange Wikipedia hole earlier this morning where I was reading about this and then it popped into my timeline totally unprompted. This is seriously disturbing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm It's 100% poseurs I'm pretty sure? Although to be fair that's how a lot of language evolves. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Time to send these abroad now. By the time AstraZeneca gets an EUA, which if you read between the lines of this article seems rather uncertain anyway, the US will be awash in other vaccines and will likely have no demand shortfall. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@youyanggu @Kane_1200 @julietast2 @WesPegden Yeah, NY lets you self-attest for exactly this reason. They worry requiring access to a doctor would worsen equity concerns. Again, though, I'm not sure that disadvantaged people are aware they can self-attest. You have to be pretty deep in the weeds to know all the policies. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WesPegden @youyanggu It's also another thing that potentially advantages high-information people. There are lots of "basically healthy" people who qualify for vaccines under these rules. How many of them know that, say, moderate asthma qualifies you in NY state? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@youyanggu @WesPegden I think your broader point is smart/right. But some states have lists of pre-existing conditions that are broad enough to include 50-75% of the population. So it comes pretty close to first-come, first-serve at that point. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@robbysoave One thing I wonder about is how this is being covered in the press in Europe. From what I can tell, there is occasional tsk-tsking but the reaction has been fairly muted overall. But it's an absolutely massive deal. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias And to take a more pluralistic view toward expertise. The NYT recently ran a story on the expert consensus re: schools. But they defined experts as "doctors who study infectious disease in children". Seems like you'd also want to talk to teachers, child development experts, etc. https://t.co/IHjKyQNpAl — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias If we're following the science here, there's also all the Phil Tetlock stuff about how "foxes" with modest domain expertise who aggregate info from domian-matter experts tend to make better forecasts than the domain-matter experts themselves. https://t.co/XUePiBTfbf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So, it looks like most of you were too pessimistic back in November. 20 MLB teams are now confirmed as planning to allow 20%+ capacity on Opening Day. It's likely that several others who are still clarifying policy will join them, too. https://t.co/hRmUXglAC2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A month ago, the EU and UK had similar rates of COVID cases per capita, and the US was about 30% higher than either one. Now? The EU (slow vaccine rollout) has ~2x as many cases per capita as the US (fast-ish vaccine rollout) and 3-4x more cases than the UK (very fast rollout). https://t.co/EDP8dNGvip — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Several EU countries are temporarily suspending use of the AstraZeneca vaccine (see story below). So it's worth pointing out that the EU's slow/conservative vaccine rollout is starting to have real consequences. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @PeterSchorschFL: Must-read this morning: “The Year Of Choosing Dangerously” via @Maggiekb1 https://t.co/HXU23Q3c3h — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@donnellymjd @CDCgov It's all just pretty weird and I honestly don't know what to make of it. Maybe antibody tests vary a lot in their sensitivity? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@donnellymjd @CDCgov I've been super confused by a lot of the seroprevalence data all pandemic long. The city's own data has shown seroprevalence increasing recently although may be lots of selection bias here (I think it's mostly people getting antibody tests at CityMD, etc) https://t.co/ctDbJm9h2o https://t.co/qp0r9ihSCK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Tonyhkchow: Highly recommend the latest Podcast-19 ep talking about what the near future (and future future) of COVID might look like.… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We did a 2024 draft, please remember to bookmark this and make fun of us when the Republican nominee is someone we weren't even considering. https://t.co/qoCilMMeeA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jtlevy Also it's a year into a pandemic and people are incredibly bored. — PolitiTweet.org