Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Noahpinion I mean personally, my reasons for taking precautions are something like this (in order): 1a) fear/embarrassment/guilt of passing COVID to friends/loved-ones/random people in the community; 2) risk of long-term complications; 3) risk of dying — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Noahpinion FWIW I kind of hate the marshmallow framing because it implies that people are being narrowly irrational to want to socialize in-person when the issue for young(ish) healthy(ish) people is more about externalities (contributing to community spread). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The 7-day average COVID-19 case count is currently ~65K (per Worldometers) in the US. What will it be on May 15? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki @joshtpm @COVID19Tracking @nytimes Yeah, you should. And I do think that once all the anomalies work their way out, we will probably still see an increase in NYC since cases are increasing throughout the Northeast. Just not the huge spike that NYT shows. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Last week we had the opposite problem and @nytimes was showing a huge fake decline in NYC COVID cases for the same reason. https://t.co/JskCMYtLz4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Because NYT uses NYC's data for the NYC part of its NYS data, which was sort of a bad call in the first place since the data isn't apples-to-apples (e.g. NYC reports probable cases when NYS doesn't). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki @joshtpm Yeah. And I understand that news sites can't track down and explain every anomaly. The @COVID19Tracking people spent huge amounts of time on these issues and they were a site specifically devoted to that sort of thing. But @nytimes is a NYC newspaper! It's a pretty big screw-up. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Personally, I find the state's data more steady and reliable, although you have to do a little work to extract the NYC portion of the state data: https://t.co/JrUEWWBRCQ NYC's page has more detail though if you can forgive the occasional reporting oddity: https://t.co/FzTtPAVIGR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm It was sort of a one-off circumstance. The City's data went offline for ~5 days a week or so ago. When they came back online, the City backfilled the data based on the date of diagnosis (as the City always does). But the NYT treated it as a huge new spike of cases. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm That is in considerable part an artifact of reporting lags in how the NYT collects its data. If you look at the city's data, which is based on the date of diagnosis rather than the date of reporting, things are pretty steady. The state's data shows an increase, but a modest one. https://t.co/tzGR7GSQ63 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@_Drew_McCoy_ I think there's more evidence now that the rate may indeed be higher than in the general population, although a lot of it is provisional data, etc. https://t.co/PoKbWjZOcB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It also leaves out the morbidity risk (e.g. long COVID). But the point is, this is inconsistent with how we've treated risk over the past year. We've been telling young, healthy people at low risk of dying themselves to radically alter their lives to ↓ community transmission. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Namely, that people who acquire COVID are transmitting it, on average, to ~1.1 other people in Canada right now. And there's no guarantee that the persons you'll transmit to will also be young and healthy. A vaccine that can stop ~90% of those transmissions is a life-saver. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It suppose it *could* be true that the risk of dying from blood clots from the AZ vaccine, while very low, is enough to compete with the risk of acquiring and dying from COVID for healthy young people, which is also low. But that leaves something big out! https://t.co/MUFNFASQ6D https://t.co/3LjPCxF9IW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@maggiekb1 In the short run, the game of who-can-solve-the-CAPTCHA the fastest will probably continue to benefit high-income/info people. In the long run though, yeah let's hope so, especially since this survey also shows the racial gap in vaccine hesitancy basically having disappeared. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I guess it's a moot point as states expand eligibility to everyone, but about 30% of people *don't know whether they're eligible for the vaccine*, with the rates higher for more disadvantaged groups. There's downside to complicated eligibility rules. https://t.co/1OvzGZU0Wk https://t.co/KkjpwC7jHv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@allahpundit That doesn't seem that far dude, make a little roadtrip and blog it for #content. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @nataliexdean: @NateSilver538 A related thought... the level (or type) of immune response to prevent infection may be different from wha… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @nataliexdean: @NateSilver538 @JuliaLMarcus So most everyone might be above the threshold for preventing severe disease, but some people… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@nataliexdean Thank you for this detailed response. (I was really hoping you'd see this question!) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @nataliexdean: @NateSilver538 Since we see strong immune responses in the vast majority of vaccinated people (versus there being some su… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @nataliexdean: @NateSilver538 The truth may be somewhere in between, with similar levels of high but incomplete protection, with some pe… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @nataliexdean: @NateSilver538 We have two conceptual models for vaccines. 1) All-or-none, meaning you are either perfectly protected (95… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen @baseballot I'm not ready for "the Research Triangle is in the Northeast" takes yet. However, the parts of NY State that root for the Blue Jays are in the Midwest. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @baseballot: Blocked and reported. https://t.co/iDjYUDJLDf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

New England should be defined by the Red Sox-Yankees Line and not where the state boundaries arbitrarily happen to be. cc: @baseballot — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred Thank you! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @notdred: @NateSilver538 The term "correlates of protection" is probably most useful to explain, in that immune responses can be highly… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@leonidkruglyak Right, yeah, that would be the extreme case. (Which I tend to doubt is likely, but I have no idea really so that's why I'm asking the actual experts on here.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Put another way, should we treat each encounter as independent? If say a vaccinated person takes a 95% effective vaccine, resumes some activities, has a bunch of exposure to COVID and doesn't get COVID, should we revise our prior for how effective the vaccine is *for her*? — PolitiTweet.org