Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 13, 2021

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Mon Mar 29 20:38:05 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Put another way, should we treat each encounter as independent? If say a vaccinated person takes a 95% effective vaccine, resumes some activities, has a bunch of exposure to COVID and doesn't get COVID, should we revise our prior for how effective the vaccine is *for her*? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 29, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

OK, I have a weird question that's a little hard to phrase. To the extent vaccines are not 100% effective, is that because some individuals have better immune responses than others, or because some encounters with COVID are more likely to overcome the immune response than others? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 29, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@leonidkruglyak Right, yeah, that would be the extreme case. (Which I tend to doubt is likely, but I have no idea really so that's why I'm asking the actual experts on here.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 29, 2021