Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's debate over how much voting restrictions actually affects who turns out—my research has found that stricter laws indeed hurt Dems, but not all research agrees. But any GOP gains could be outweighed if these laws are unpopular with swing voters. https://t.co/UprrEeha36 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't know, it's certainly not exactly right to say "once you complete your vaccination course, you're good to go" but it may be *approximately* right and public health advice is usually full of approximations. https://t.co/JSihVosqk9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

New Mexico just legalized weed too so now it's just the Delmarva states that are the holdouts. https://t.co/Z9lhGP4WTH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

They're kind of subtweeting here but, yeah, newsrooms tracking COVID data really need to read this. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @perrybaconjr: By our metrics, Manchin has the 6th (2012) and 22nd (2018) most-impressive electoral wins of any Senate candidate in the… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @aedwardslevy: Plus, some lessons from vaccine surveys that apply to polling in general: -Snapshots, not predictions -People are bad at… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW I was a little confused by some of the coverage on this. "When this takes effect is" actually **now**; marijuana became legal in NY state as of today. It will take a while before there are retail dispensaries and so forth. https://t.co/S624wjjq9Q — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, vaccine coverage may be patchy. We're starting to see evidence of vaccine hesitancy in red, rural areas. Poorer communities, especially poor Black and Hispanic communities, have lagged behind in access. Children can't get vaccinated yet. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But I wonder if people are underestimating the lags. It takes ~2 weeks from your 1st shot to have much protection at all & 5-6 wks to count as "fully vaccinated" with a 2-dose vaccine. Plus there are reporting lags. A "new" case today may actually have been acquired 1-2 wks ago. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On the one hand, the case for optimism is sort of obvious. At some point, barring immune-escape variants, it seems likely we'll hit a threshold where rising levels of vaccination/immunity simply wins out over other factors, as in Israel right now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So here's how this came out. I have no idea about the "right" answer—I'd probably have chosen the popular 41K-65K bucket if forced to pick—but I'm glad there are sizable numbers in all 4 buckets because I don't trust highly confident predictions about COVID trajectories. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

When this takes effect, marijuana will be legal in 12 of the 16 states that Biden won by double digits + DC. Exceptions: Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, New Mexico. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One potential issue is that even where cities limit access to vaccine sites based on residency, they generally do it based on either living *or working* in the jurisdiction. Thus, if allocation formulas are based solely on the residential population, they may undersupply cities. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Example of that in New York, for instance: https://t.co/q9J9qZmC6W — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Most of this is presumably vaccine hesitancy being greater in rural (i.e. generally redder) areas. But I suspect also there are asymmetries caused by more people coming from the country to the city for vaccines than the other way around. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

At some point if there's excess demand for vaccine in urban areas and excess supply in rural areas, that starts to reflect a policy failure of federal and state allocation formulas. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @baseballot: Great to have Ariel contributing to FiveThirtyEight! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TimAlberta At least we can pretend our Michigan State/UCLA brackets were extremely prescient. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Great to see an obscure underdog school like UCLA (an 11 seed!) make the Final Four. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Update: there are questions. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you had to disband any MLB/NFL/NBA/NHL franchise, is there really any question at this point that the Marlins would be first? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @NateSilver538: For a fairly long time I thought Congressman Matt Gaetz was one of those parody twitter accounts like @RepStevenSmith th… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

All of the sudden there's a like a 20-person long vaccine waiting line at my local Duane Reade so that seems good. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@lxeagle17 @umichvoter Ehh, I think Alaska and Hawaii have a lot in common by virtue of being Not In The Lower 48 and that it's one of the more obvious pairings. Hawaii also lacks logical pairings apart from Alaska. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@umichvoter Some of these offended me so much that I made my own version. https://t.co/0oorMyFTH1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ZoeMcLaren @Noahpinion Yeah, I completely don't understand why people stopped pushing on the testing side of this equation. I thought by now we'd be at the point where we'd have home testing kits or you can walk into any Walgreens and get a 15-minute turnaround test for $4.99. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @FiveThirtyEight: 🥁 🥁 🥁 🥁 🥁 🥁 🥁 🥁 🥁 🥁 🥁 🥁 🥁 🥁 🥁 🥁 -- Our 2021 MLB predictions --> https://t.co/wfcR7CfqYI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ZoeMcLaren @Noahpinion I guess what I'm sort of subtly campaigning for is more recognition for the sacrifices that younger people have made. They don't bear the brunt of the health risks, but they do bear more of the burden of lockdowns in a lot of ways. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ZoeMcLaren @Noahpinion I'll grant that it's a more plausible framing now when we have a real medium-term exit strategy (i.e. vaccines). But I also saw this framing used say last spring when there were debates about when to end lockdowns, and I don't think it held up that well then. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@magi_jay @Noahpinion I'm just saying that the welfare-maximizing policy would likely be a lot different if we were solely concerned about the welfare of people aged 25 and under, for example. I actually think there should have been some aged-based transfer payments as part of the relief package. — PolitiTweet.org