Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 16, 2021

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Wed Mar 31 17:44:29 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On the one hand, the case for optimism is sort of obvious. At some point, barring immune-escape variants, it seems likely we'll hit a threshold where rising levels of vaccination/immunity simply wins out over other factors, as in Israel right now. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 31, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So here's how this came out. I have no idea about the "right" answer—I'd probably have chosen the popular 41K-65K bucket if forced to pick—but I'm glad there are sizable numbers in all 4 buckets because I don't trust highly confident predictions about COVID trajectories. — PolitiTweet.org

The 7-day average COVID-19 case count is currently ~65K (per Worldometers) in the US. What will it be on May 15?

Posted March 31, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But I wonder if people are underestimating the lags. It takes ~2 weeks from your 1st shot to have much protection at all & 5-6 wks to count as "fully vaccinated" with a 2-dose vaccine. Plus there are reporting lags. A "new" case today may actually have been acquired 1-2 wks ago. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 31, 2021