Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ne0liberal I think there's somewhat grudging awareness that "defund the police" is unpopular and probably David Shor is making better consulting fees but beyond that IDK. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ne0liberal Wait, was there ever a correction *toward* popularism? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@No_Little_Plans Yeah, definitely a lot of confounders. I also wonder if people are more likely to see their doctors (given X level of symptoms) after a COVID diagnosis because they're concerned about long COVID or because their doctors are encouraging them to monitor symptoms and follow up. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@No_Little_Plans There's no control group, and most of the symptoms they describe are common and minor (e.g. fatigue, muscle aches). Long COVID is a thing, but I don't think this study tells us very much at all about it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @jazzmyth: There's only one talking animal up the task of explaining how cognitive science research sheds light on why people believe in… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@foxjust @mattyglesias Yeah and the industry mix in NYC likely isn't as WFH-friendly going forward. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@foxjust @mattyglesias It's not that it's an undesirable place to live; it's a fairly desirable place that had become horrifically expensive out of proportion to its desirability because of major tech HQs there. So the market is correcting with its feet. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@tangotiger I am rooting *for* the streak, not *against* Canada! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @EsotericCD: This is obviously karmic revenge for those two back-to-back Blue Jays World Series wins in 1992 and 1993. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @tgeorge1323: @NateSilver538 I REALLY enjoy needling Canada for this streak. Along with USA being the reigning Olympic curling champs. 😎 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The entire nation of Canada not having won a Stanley Cup since 1993 is one of the craziest streaks in sports history and I think you have to root for it to keep going with so many other of our most important sports curses (Cubs, Red Sox, 1 v 16 seed) having fallen by the wayside. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I think social media probably bears more blame for this than traditional media. Partisan elites get more riled up when arguing about "cancel culture" than about the public option, and this platform tends to amplify that and that drives media coverage. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@R_Thaler @billjamesonline @robneyer @judy_chevalier One idea is that you actually want a league with a DH, because he doesn't have a "natural fielding position" when he isn't pitching and/or you reduce wear and tear on him. I'm not sure I totally buy it but that's the argument. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @jankulveit: Is SARS-CoV-2 transmission seasonal? In our new preprint, we find a strong seasonal pattern in temperate Europe, consistent… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Finding the right provisions might be challenging, and passage might be an uphill battle, but Pelosi, Schumer and Biden are hugely dropping the ball by not even really trying to take action on this. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The pandemic wouldn't have been as bad if public health officials had realized most people regard in-person social interaction as 'essential', are not bad people for it, and that a strategy centered around expecting them to sacrifice it for months at a time was never gonna work. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias There are T cells in the baguettes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias This goes back to the days when people feared that discussion of natural immunity could lend support to the "herd immunity strategy" so there was a weird taboo against mentioning natural immunity even though The Science was pretty clear about it by mid-spring 2020. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dmorey I think we're sort of stuck in an equilibrium where the CDC doesn't entirely trust the public and the public doesn't entirely trust the CDC. Walensky tried to break out of that equilibrium and got roundly criticized for it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Even on lifting the mask mandate, where Walensky is criticized on "behavioral science" grounds, there is some evidence it boosted vaccination rates. If so, she was right about the behavioral science and the conventional wisdom among epi-pundits was wrong. https://t.co/nO4PNIRi1B — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you want to say "follow the *behavioral* science, *too*!", that's great! But some of the people cited in this article have been quite hostile to behavioral scientists (sociologists, economists, political scientists, etc.) when they've tried to contribute their own expertise. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I guess you can steel-man this by saying "behavioral science is science too!". I strongly agree. But i) the public health community's instincts for behavioral science have been poor; ii) Behavioral science would suggest an agency being less honest with people has consequences. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So the thesis here is that Walensky follows the medical science, but actually this is bad and the CDC should tell weird little lies to people? https://t.co/HZwVZaiISp https://t.co/vpLYwcYwyo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ThisWeekABC: Will the United States reach Pres. Biden's goal to get 70% of adults at least partially vaccinated by July 4th? @FiveThirt… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @MattGlassman312: Yes to all this, but also note that they lost Congress under Trump without many durable legislative victories you migh… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dandrezner Oops yeah high floor low ceiling. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@allahpundit Yeah, for sure. Because you can certainly squint at 2018 and 2020 in a certain way as having been a pretty bad repudiation of Trumpism, and parties often adjust their strategies even after relatively narrow losses. But "stop the steal" stops that self-reflection. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This lock-in may make it harder for the GOP to steer away from its anti-democratic impulses. *Big* electoral defeats might cause the GOP to turn away from Trumpism. But you don't get a lot of *big* losses with high polarization + the structural advantages of the Trump coalition. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Trumpism may lock the GOP into a low-floor, high-ceiling approach. Given their structural advantages (e.g. overrepresentation of rural voters in the Senate), they'll win elections *just often enough* with it. But it is not *broadly* popular and will rarely win big majorities. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Part of the issue for Republicans is that they don't have a lot of examples of recent electoral successes apart from Trump. But Trump wasn't really that successful; one-termer who barely beat a flawed opponent (HRC), plus lost Congress despite GOP structural advantages. — PolitiTweet.org