Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 25, 2021

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Sat Jun 12 17:06:49 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Trumpism may lock the GOP into a low-floor, high-ceiling approach. Given their structural advantages (e.g. overrepresentation of rural voters in the Senate), they'll win elections *just often enough* with it. But it is not *broadly* popular and will rarely win big majorities. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 12, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Part of the issue for Republicans is that they don't have a lot of examples of recent electoral successes apart from Trump. But Trump wasn't really that successful; one-termer who barely beat a flawed opponent (HRC), plus lost Congress despite GOP structural advantages. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 12, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This lock-in may make it harder for the GOP to steer away from its anti-democratic impulses. *Big* electoral defeats might cause the GOP to turn away from Trumpism. But you don't get a lot of *big* losses with high polarization + the structural advantages of the Trump coalition. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 12, 2021