Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 25, 2021

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Sat Jun 12 17:12:43 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This lock-in may make it harder for the GOP to steer away from its anti-democratic impulses. *Big* electoral defeats might cause the GOP to turn away from Trumpism. But you don't get a lot of *big* losses with high polarization + the structural advantages of the Trump coalition. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 12, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Trumpism may lock the GOP into a low-floor, high-ceiling approach. Given their structural advantages (e.g. overrepresentation of rural voters in the Senate), they'll win elections *just often enough* with it. But it is not *broadly* popular and will rarely win big majorities. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 12, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@allahpundit Yeah, for sure. Because you can certainly squint at 2018 and 2020 in a certain way as having been a pretty bad repudiation of Trumpism, and parties often adjust their strategies even after relatively narrow losses. But "stop the steal" stops that self-reflection. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 12, 2021