Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm also somewhat surprised that there hasn't been more market segmentation around this. If e.g. some upper-middlebrow hotel chain said they were only open to vaccinated people (plus kids under 12) I'd imagine a lot of travelers would choose them. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, went to several sporting events in NYC while this regime was in place and it was pretty smooth. And although I'm not super worried about being around unvaccinated people, there was still a lot of peace of mind in knowing everyone was vaccinated. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AstorAaron For me it's like, as a vaccinated person, we're sort of in the steady/endemic state. Risk may vary over time based on community spread/variants/boosters, but it's likely to be present in some form and may be about average now relative to where it will be over the long run. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Kevin_Goldstein LOL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Kevin_Goldstein If a team's down by more than one run in the bottom of the 9th, giving up a leadoff walk or a leadoff HR should have approximately the same effect on win expectancy, and you can argue the former is worse if pitchers are worse with runners on base. (Empirical data is mixed.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For as much as we're a hopelessly polarized country, ~70% of adults (and I'd guess more like ~75% of likely voters) are already at least partly vaccinated. It's hard to get 70-75% of the country to agree on anything! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think this is that complicated. The vaccinated are a supermajority of voters, they have every reason to be highly annoyed with the unvaccinated and the people who abet them, and the Delta variant makes it more likely this will still be a salient issue by November 2022. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing I think you could see is a push in blue states/cities toward vaccine requirements (e.g. "all patrons aged 12 or over must be vaccinated to attend this concert/movie/ballgame/etc.") which would be superior in almost every respect to full shutdowns of businesses. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

e.g. "The FDA is being extremely nitty by not yet having granted full authorization to the mRNA vaccines." — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I kind of wish the poker term 'nit' (adjective 'nitty')—meaning a player who is extremely risk-averse, often to the point where they're acting against their own self-interest—was more broadly used outside of poker. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kdrum @JamesSurowiecki @mattyglesias I'm pro-process but when a process is revealed to be inarguably stupid in high-stakes real-world trials you should design a better process. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kdrum @JamesSurowiecki @mattyglesias The mRNA vaccines are approximately 99.95% to be fully approved at some point in the near future and everyone knows it so yeah I don't really understand what the problem is. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kdrum @mattyglesias I think that the process is far too cumbersome under the circumstances and that most of the Epi-Pundits would agree if you gave them truth serum. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kdrum @mattyglesias Also possibly more stupid than I think! I'm pretty open to being wrong in either direction. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias A lot of the Epi-Pundits seem concerned with cultivating their image on social media rather than pointing out how obviously stupid it is that the vaccines don't have full approval yet. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davewiner I'd think almost certainly, yeah. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The Every! Breakthrough! Infection! Is! Big! News! news cycle is getting pretty annoying and is probably going to give vaccinated people a lot of unnecessary anxiety about Delta while also providing kindling to anti-vaxxers. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Almost want to run for mayor just so I can grant a 4am outdoor liquor license to clubstaurants outside each and every one of these people's apartments. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @KSoltisAnderson: Joined @FiveThirtyEight podcast today to talk about @EchelonInsights latest polling on America's ideological breakdown… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@StevenACohen2 This is sort of begging the question tbh Steve. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For another, we're dealing with far different circumstances than earlier phases of the pandemic & I don't expect nearly as much consensus among public health experts on the desirability of restrictions. Even "Zero COVID" folks are now somewhat resigned. https://t.co/FZwFhUt4bR https://t.co/Mtt8J9vbqf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For one thing, it's not clear who the constituency for these restrictions would be. Vaccinated people are pretty safe and don't necessarily *need* them while unvaccinated people largely won't *want* them and may not abide by them. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think you'll see some places reimpose mask mandates and I think you'll see some fierce debates about school reopenings, but I'd be somewhat surprised if you see many COVID-related restrictions return in the US beyond that. (No idea about other countries.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @kennyshirley: @NateSilver538 I used to teach Bayes theorem and its results still surprise me! Here’s the type of diagram that usually… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If 95% of a population is fully vaccinated and vaccines reduce hospitalizations by 90%, you'd expect ~2/3 of hospitalizations to be among vaccinated people. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The UK has a VERY high share of older people vaccinated (like 95%+ of age 65+) and since hospitalizations are MUCH more likely to occur among older people, that makes a pretty big difference. Also, their Delta wave is further along and AZ likely a bit less effective than mRNA. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Now, it's silly on some level for the White House to place more scrutiny on Facebook and less on Fox News. But the reasons they do that are obvious enough: Facebook may be responsive to criticisms in a way that Fox News's opinion hosts almost certainly won't be. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Polling in Jan. 2021 when Biden took office showed ~50% of adults eager to take the vaccine, ~35% on the fence, ~15% hard-core opposed. The US has gotten all of the eagers and more than half of on-the-fences for ~70% overall, with the numbers still growing, although slowly. https://t.co/2U18lOrHjC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't really get both-sidesing the vaccine rollout. I think the White House made one big screw-up—pausing the J&J vaccine was pretty clearly a mistake—but the rollout is going about as well as one might reasonably have hoped in a polarized country. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think one can argue that requirements (by colleges, by employers, by certain types of businesses e.g. airlines) could move the needle some. There's a consistent 6-7% of the adult population who says they'll take the vaccine "only if required". https://t.co/MnIz8ozT10 — PolitiTweet.org