Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not saying it's aliens, it's almost definitely not aliens, but if you were making a movie where it was aliens having the Chinese weather balloon thing happen a few days earlier would be a great head-fake. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ryxcommar On certain subjects, you'll sometimes get it worse if you sound like you're making the effort to be the reasonable one and appeal to "swing voters" since you're less easily dismissed as just being on the other "team". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss Common mistake but that's actually the Spokane Steeple. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved @SethPartnow Also implicit load management by taking defensive possessions off in the regular season. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved @SethPartnow I also wonder how much of it is load management as opposed to injury recovery per se, which also extends to aging players. i.e. now the way a guy like LeBron ages is by playing 55 games a year instead of 80 at basically the same BPM level. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved @SethPartnow Yeah, my bad on that! Although our model is starting to miss low on a lot of guys returning from injury (at least *rate* wise although maybe not as much WAR wise). Think the sports science has improved a lot. (We use a specific injury adjustment. Achilles = cat 5 = the worst.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RossBarkan I guess I read this more as "public intellectual with substantial fluency in the arts as well as politics". And I also don't know that there are a whole ton of those. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RossBarkan I mean there's Tyler Cowen. But he picks and chooses his political topics. I think a lot of the issue is that political junkies tend to be more coordinated now in debating the "political topic of the day" and that topic is often a tedious one about which there's little to say. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SethPartnow Yeah. I might protest that it's more like a 25th percentile outcome (think there was a ~25% chance that KD would never be all-NBA caliber post ACL) but otherwise we're in alignment. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SethPartnow I'm thisclose to writing a hot take that the Nets did a pretty good job throughout the KD era. They took on players that were extreme outliers on the risk-reward spectrum, it didn't work out but it wasn't inherently all that likely to, and they extricated themselves pretty well. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jaycaspiankang Yeah it is basically way too hard to resist the urge to be the equivalent of the guy who traded a paperclip for a mansion in 15 steps or whatever it was. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jaycaspiankang I pioneered the strategy of packaging 17 second-round picks for rotation players in NBA2K franchise mode years ago and a little perturbed not to be getting more credit for it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Nets in a weird position where they have a lot of other teams' draft capital and not very much of their own, so they can rebuild without having an incentive to tank. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@redrock_bball They ironically now way overindex on "perfect supporting cast members for a team with 1-2 superstars". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JADubin5 @SethPartnow TBH also makes more sense as a win-now move if Hart gets some Barrett minutes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SethPartnow Makes Quickley more expendable in a trade for Anunoby? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A lot of people's mental models of what Democratic voters are like aren't super compatible with the fact that Joe Biden quite easily won the party's most recent primary. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes Yeah, none of this is mutually exclusive and racial and political polarization are always going to be a big part of the story in the US! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes Yeah I think 3 main explanations, one about veto points in the political system preventing paternalistic regulation, one about inequality, and one fuzzy one about frontier spirit and risk preferences. This comes up in my book so hoping to find some people to talk to about it! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes Yeah. I guess one way to think about it is that the West is in a period of semi-stagnation and can no longer "have its cake and eat it too" (i.e. both have economic growth and growth in life expectancy). In the US, we really seem to prefer the econ/riskier side of the trade. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes Interesting thau Europe has sort of bucked the trend in the other direction. (EU GDP/capita hasn't really grown since the Great Fianancial Crisis but life expectancy was still improving pre COVID.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @galendruke: This... Is... Model Talk! @NateSilver538 and I chatted about how our forecasts did in 2022. If we said there was a 70% c… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is ... a pretty decent return under the circumstances? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This significantly increases the role of Black and Hispanic Democrats; it also increases the role of moderate Democrats since Black and Hispanic Democrats are on average more moderate than white Democrats. https://t.co/gLGS5ZdbPF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SethPartnow Yeah I keep a pretty big discard pile of stuff that I turned on but might turn out to be good or at least useful! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The "fun" thing about writing about a book is that you'll struggle to churn out 1000 words and there's pretty much no way to know in the moment if they're brilliant or you'll hate them two days later. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

10/ It is of course a little…piquing…that some of the same vibes-based punditry that ignored polling averages or cherry-picked data to sell a "red wave" narrative then later turned around and blamed polls/data. But that’s why sites like 538 need to exist. Trust the process. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

9/ More generally, it’s usually a huge mistake to “fight the last war” in forecasting. Much news coverage (and even some data-driven shops) way overcompensated for 2016/2020 by treating "polls always underestimate Republicans" as the new normal. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

8) We ~already~ have a lot of defenses against pollsters “flooding the zone”. But of course, it’s hard to know in advance which polls will be most accurate. Some of the polls that did best in 2020 were worst in 2022. You need a lot of data and a long-term mindset. https://t.co/2NKnjsnibN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

7/ We don’t really plan to make major changes to how we aggregate/average polls because the process worked and produced quite accurate averages! Some pollsters (Trafalgar, Rasmussen) had a really bad year but averages that followed a rigorous process had a good year. — PolitiTweet.org