Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked April 3, 2023

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Wed Dec 07 15:25:04 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MappingFL i definitely think there's a huge campaign v. analysis gap on this stuff. i've seen it before. and i get why that's how you have to think: ground game tries to turnout each voter one at a time, for example. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 7, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@32789ff @MappingFL because the dropoff in turnout on this scale -- 10% statewide -- is usually large enough to exceed the shift in vote share by county, so democrats will almost always lose ground in 'their' counties and gop will basically always gain (or reverse if you gain 10%) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 7, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MappingFL but even besides the campaign v. analyst way of thinking, i actually do disagree with what you've said -- you win at *50%* +1, not any raw vote tally. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 7, 2022