Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked April 3, 2023

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Wed Dec 07 15:23:13 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@32789ff @MappingFL because the dropoff in turnout on this scale -- 10% statewide -- is usually large enough to exceed the shift in vote share by county, so democrats will almost always lose ground in 'their' counties and gop will basically always gain (or reverse if you gain 10%) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 7, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MappingFL that's not the way i look at it, but even stipulating that framing of his goal: i don't think this map represents the fulfillment of that goal from a warnock campaign standpoint, unless you think he won by holding down walker margins in rural areas (which just lower GOP turnout) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 7, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MappingFL i definitely think there's a huge campaign v. analysis gap on this stuff. i've seen it before. and i get why that's how you have to think: ground game tries to turnout each voter one at a time, for example. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 7, 2022