Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked April 3, 2023

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Wed Dec 07 15:20:39 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MappingFL that's not the way i look at it, but even stipulating that framing of his goal: i don't think this map represents the fulfillment of that goal from a warnock campaign standpoint, unless you think he won by holding down walker margins in rural areas (which just lower GOP turnout) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 7, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MappingFL this just strikes me as the textbook example of why vote margins aren't very useful. it will basically always look like this going from a low to high turnout election; it will look like the reverse going from a low to a high turnout election — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 7, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@32789ff @MappingFL because the dropoff in turnout on this scale -- 10% statewide -- is usually large enough to exceed the shift in vote share by county, so democrats will almost always lose ground in 'their' counties and gop will basically always gain (or reverse if you gain 10%) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 7, 2022