Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked March 13, 2023

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Mon Oct 10 18:41:31 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot @LoganDobson well the model does know about the RGV shift -- it just doesn't take it as seriously as a model trained only on recent data, for ex. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 10, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot yeah, that's where i figured. it's not where i'd have it, personally. but i don't mean to fight about it -- i mainly think that this is a case where modeling choices are unusually important and yours probably represents the best case for Ds — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 10, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot @LoganDobson well the model does know about the RGV shift -- it just doesn't take it as seriously as a model trained only on recent data, for ex. if you think this is an R+2 CD, not sure you need to know the rest here to have a very different answer than 538 / understand the DCCC — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 10, 2022