Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 10, 2022

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Mon Oct 10 18:38:25 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot yeah, that's where i figured. it's not where i'd have it, personally. but i don't mean to fight about it -- i mainly think that this is a case where modeling choices are unusually important and yours probably represents the best case for Ds — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 10, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot is this because of your partisanship measure in a traditionally dem district? other model specifications would have this as a pretty plainly GOP favored CD (if we turned on the needle rn, this would start at like R+8) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 10, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot @LoganDobson well the model does know about the RGV shift -- it just doesn't take it as seriously as a model trained only on recent data, for ex. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 10, 2022