Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 3, 2022

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Sat Aug 06 13:13:36 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@wpmarble @BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias indeed, we can check. the final times/siena poll showed Biden at 55% among validated voters in precincts where hispanics were >70% of the population. the actual results gave him 46%. so that's pretty good evidence our data was bad — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 6, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@wpmarble @BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias take our times/siena poll in Florida. we don't show a biden making big gains in florida, despite the results by precinct. is it possible that it's just the ecological fallacy? perhaps. should i dismiss the precincts on that basis and publish that there was no shift? no way! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 6, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DanGamarnik @davidshor @RStateBState @wpmarble what? all of these analyses are either weighted by vote tallies (the precinct aggregation) or downstream of popualtion-level sampling (the poll data). this is just not the problem here. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 7, 2022