Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 3, 2022

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Sat Aug 06 13:11:02 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@wpmarble @BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias take our times/siena poll in Florida. we don't show a biden making big gains in florida, despite the results by precinct. is it possible that it's just the ecological fallacy? perhaps. should i dismiss the precincts on that basis and publish that there was no shift? no way! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 6, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@wpmarble @BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias and regardless of the method, researchers working with mediocre survey data absolutely have obligation to evaluate whether their estimates comport with the results! you may not like pesky shor scatterplots, but I do think there's a burden to reconcile your estimates with them! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 6, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@wpmarble @BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias indeed, we can check. the final times/siena poll showed Biden at 55% among validated voters in precincts where hispanics were >70% of the population. the actual results gave him 46%. so that's pretty good evidence our data was bad — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 6, 2022