Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 3, 2022

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Fri Aug 05 21:39:50 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@wpmarble @BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias it's not the regression that's ultimately dispositive--it's that the combination of hard results, turnout data and survey data wind up creating restrictions on the range of plausible stories about what happened / have serious implications for our interpretation of surveys alone — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 5, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@wpmarble @BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias it's really not just the regression, to be clear. we have the results by precinct, we have turnout data from the voter file and we have polling data joined to all of it. all of these data need to be reconciled. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 5, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@doug_rivers i'm trying to be with family tonight, but i'll bite: what are you actually disagreeing with here? the ANES results grossly overestimated Biden before they threw a sloppy post-hoc correction on there. why should I put great stock in an ANES-based subgroup estimate? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 5, 2022