Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated No

Last Checked Jan. 26, 2022

Created

Wed Dec 29 22:27:31 +0000 2021

Likes

100

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You can imagine two states, for ex: one where Dems win 60/40 in every precinct (here we'd expect Dems to get all CDs), and one where Dems win 100% in 60% of precincts, and GOP wins 100% in 40% of precincts (here we'd expect the GOP to get a lot of CDs!) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2021

Preceded By

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We can measure this phenomenon in a pretty simple way: what percentage of people *live* in Democratic precincts? what percentage *live* in Democratic counties? That's slightly different than vote share, but it's the one that really informs this problem. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2021

Followed By

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What's the number for California? Well in 2020, 84% of votes were cast in Democratic precincts, even though Democrats won 64% of the vote (i'd guess the disparity is even greater using *people* not votes) That means we expect Democrats to win a disproportionate number of seats. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2021