Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 26, 2022

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Wed Dec 29 22:25:15 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We can measure this phenomenon in a pretty simple way: what percentage of people *live* in Democratic precincts? what percentage *live* in Democratic counties? That's slightly different than vote share, but it's the one that really informs this problem. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Why? Districts represent geographic areas. In lopsided states, a party tends to nearly everywhere. To take extreme ex, imagine a state where Reps won 70/30... but there was no place where Dems won. There's no way you could draw 30% of dists for the Dems. (WY/WV is an IRL ex) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You can imagine two states, for ex: one where Dems win 60/40 in every precinct (here we'd expect Dems to get all CDs), and one where Dems win 100% in 60% of precincts, and GOP wins 100% in 40% of precincts (here we'd expect the GOP to get a lot of CDs!) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2021