Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 26, 2022

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Wed Dec 29 22:28:58 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What's the number for California? Well in 2020, 84% of votes were cast in Democratic precincts, even though Democrats won 64% of the vote (i'd guess the disparity is even greater using *people* not votes) That means we expect Democrats to win a disproportionate number of seats. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You can imagine two states, for ex: one where Dems win 60/40 in every precinct (here we'd expect Dems to get all CDs), and one where Dems win 100% in 60% of precincts, and GOP wins 100% in 40% of precincts (here we'd expect the GOP to get a lot of CDs!) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The same measure, btw, shows some of the challenges Democrats have in other states. Only 44% of votes in Wisconsin were cast in Biden precincts! That's a huge part of their 'geography' problem, and why even a Dem draw would struggle to get to a 4-4 split — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2021