Tweet by @Nate_Cohn | PolitiTweet

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Take VA, for instance. Dave treats this as an R+1 shift, since Dems aren't favored to hold VA-2 (which is true). But they probably would have won VA-2 in 2020 (this is still a Biden CD). So I'm not sure I'd call this a loss due to redistricting https://t.co/gPJxcwzmKt — PolitiTweet.org

Virginia's new map is another good example. One R-leaning seat moves to D-leaning: #VA07, which helps Rep. Abigail… https://t.co/SpT9R2kIWO

Posted Dec. 29, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I broadly agree with this, though I'd add one additional twist on how to think about redistricting by seat: whether we're comparing to the actual outcome in 2020 or a hypothetical expected outcome on the old map in 2022 https://t.co/xrOKQaTZX6 — PolitiTweet.org

Thread: which party is "ahead" in redistricting? In my view, it's close to a wash. But the truth is, it depends whi… https://t.co/GOQaEfWqaF

Posted Dec. 29, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And on the other hand, Democrats might have been underdogs in both VA-2/7 on the old map in '22. By that forward looking measure, one could say the Democrats might be favored to gain a seat due to redistricting — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2021