Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Fri Nov 20 14:51:42 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The evidence never really matched this theory IMO, but it looks even worse today. The black share of the electorate did not increase, and quite possibly dropped. The voter file data we have so far suggests that the partisan turnout balance was unchanged or even *better* for Rs — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A second theory was that Trump won because of a bad progressive, youth, and nonwhite (but especially Black) turnout. To win, all Democrats needed was to recreate the Obama turnout, win some Jill Stein votes, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And most of all, this theory assumed--implicitly--that all Dems needed to do was win 2016, as the president had maxed out his support, hadn't won any new converts, and couldn't compete in a higher turnout election. That assumption was wrong — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 20, 2020 Hibernated